Investing.com– Oil prices rose Tuesday, rebounding after the prior session’s sharp losses as the prospect of an Israel-Lebanon ceasefire saw traders pricing in a smaller risk premium for crude.
A 09:05 ET (14:05 GMT), Brent oil futures rose 0.6% to $72.89 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures climbed 0.7% to $69.42 a barrel.
Oil pressured by reports of Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire
Oil prices tumbled on Monday after several media reports said Israel and Lebanese militant group Hezbollah were close to reaching a U.S.-brokered ceasefire deal.
US President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron are set to announce the ceasefire “imminently,” Reuters reported.
A ceasefire between the two marks a major deescalation in the long-running Middle East conflict, and lessens the risk of oil supply disruptions stemming from the conflict.
Reports also suggested that Biden was pushing for a ceasefire in Gaza.
“A deal in the Middle East could also help reduce the tensions between Israel and Iran and lower the regional supply risks significantly for the oil market in immediate terms,” said analysts at ING, in a note.
That said, a heightening of Russia-Ukraine tensions over the past week will likely continue to provide support, after Moscow threatened nuclear retaliation for Kyiv’s use of Western-made long-range missiles in the war.
Trump tariff threat weighs
That said, the upside looks limited at the moment, especially after President-elect Donald Trump threatened to impose a hefty tariff on China over the alleged inflow of illicit drugs into the US.
The dollar shot up on the prospect of more U.S. protectionist policies, coming back in sight of a two-year high and pressuring crude prices. A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for international buyers, denting demand.
The prospect of higher trade tariffs on China, which is the world’s biggest oil importer, also weighed on oil, given that they herald more economic pressure on Beijing.
Beijing could also impose retaliatory tariffs against the U.S., ramping up a trade war between the world’s two largest economies and potentially disrupting global trade.
“New tariffs from the US could intensify the global trade frictions and may impact the economic growth prospects in the longer term,” ING added.
2025 challenges for oil markets
The challenges for energy in 2025 are similar to what they were in 2024, with overcapacity in global oil markets meaning there is little room for either
commodity-price or asset-price inflation, analysts at Citi said, in a note dated Nov. 26.
However, the bank noted two differences.
“One is that there is now better valuation support with the sector discounting $62/b Brent oil, 15% below strip prices. The second is that a changing political backdrop sets-up for reductions in the sector CoE [cost of equity], certainly in US but perhaps more broadly if the winds also start to shift in Europe,” said Citi analysts.
The US bank sees no scope for OPEC+ to reverse production cuts in 2025, leaving an estimated 8 million barrels per day (c. 8%) of global oil market capacity on the sidelines.
“While we expect OPEC+ to stick to its current strategy and keep this oil out of the market, capacity excess means there is neither need for commodity price or asset price (equities) inflation,” Citi said.
(Ambar Warrick contributed to this article.)
This post is originally published on INVESTING.
