By Nicole Jao
NEW YORK (Reuters) -Oil prices fell slightly on Friday as investors weighed weak U.S. fuel demand, but key inflation data for May boosted the chances of the U.S. Federal Reserve starting to cut interest rates this year.
Brent crude futures for August settlement, which expire on Friday, were up 8 cents at $86.47 a barrel by 12:00 p.m. EDT (1600 GMT). The more liquid September contract was down 0.14% at $85.14.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 11 cents, or 0.13%, to $81.63.
Brent was on track to gain around 1% over the week, while WTI futures were headed for a 0.1% loss. Both benchmarks were on track for monthly gains of 6%.
While U.S. oil production and demand rose to a four-month high in April, demand for gasoline fell to 8.83 million barrels per day, its lowest since February, according to the Energy Information Administration’s Petroleum Supply Monthly report published on Friday.
“The monthly report from the EIA suggested the gasoline demand was pretty poor,” said Phil Flynn, analyst at Price Futures Group. “Those numbers didn’t really inspire more buying.”
However, the U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – was flat in May, lifting hopes for rate cuts in September.
Still, the reaction in financial markets was minimal. For oil traders, the release passed unnoticed, said Charalampos Pissouros, senior investment analyst at brokerage XM.
Growing expectations of an imminent Fed easing cycle have sparked a risk rally across stock markets. Traders are now pricing in a 64% chance of a first rate cut in September, up from 50% a month ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Easing interest rates could be a boon for oil because it could increase demand from consumers.
“Oil prices have been converging with our fair value estimates recently, revealing the underlying strength in fundamentals through a clearing in the fog of war,” Barclays analyst Amarpreet Singh wrote in a client note.
Barclays expects Brent crude to remain around $90 a barrel over the coming months.
Oil prices might not change much in the second half of 2024, with concern over Chinese demand and the prospect of higher supply from key producers countering geopolitical risks, a Reuters poll indicated on Friday.
Brent crude is expected to average $83.93 a barrel in 2024 with U.S. crude averaging $79.72, the poll found.
This post is originally published on INVESTING.
