Economic calendar for the week 23.09.2024 – 29.09.2024

Last week was marked by meetings of four major world central banks, with the Fed’s meeting stealing the spotlight. Now, market participants are grappling with understanding whether the Fed’s leaders will stick to the tight parameters of the monetary policy.

In the upcoming week, 23.09.2024 – 29.09.2024, market participants will expect the publication of macro data on Germany, the eurozone, the UK, the US, and Japan, as well as the results of the Australian and Swiss central bank meetings.

Note: During the coming week, new events may be added to the calendar, and / or some scheduled events may be cancelled. GMT time

The article covers the following subjects:

Key facts

• Monday: German, the eurozone, UK, and US preliminary PMIs
• Tuesday: Reserve Bank of Australia meeting
• Wednesday: Australian CPI
• Thursday: Swiss National Bank meeting
• Friday: US PCE
• Key event of the week: US PCE indexes

Monday, September 23

07:30 – EUR: Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Index of the German Economy by S&P Global. Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index of the German Economy by S&P Global (Preliminary Release)

The manufacturing and services PMIs are important indicators of the business environment and the health of the German economy. These sectors play a significant role in Germany’s GDP. A reading above 50 indicates a positive outlook and bolsters the euro, while a reading below 50 is negative for the euro. Conversely, data worse than the forecasted and/or the previous value will prove to be negative for the euro.

Previous values:

• Manufacturing PMI: 42.4, 43.2, 43.5, 45.4, 42.5, 41.9, 42.5, 45.5, 43.3, 40.8, 39.6, 38.8, 40.6, 43.2, 44.5, 44.7, 46.3, 47.3, 47.1, 46.2, 45.1, 47.8, 49.1, 49.3, 52.0, 54.8, 54.6;
• Services PMI: 51.2, 52.5, 53.1, 54.2, 53.2, 50.1, 48.3, 47.7, 45.7, 48.2, 50.3, 52.3, 54.1, 57.2, 56.0, 53.7, 50.9, 50.7, 49.2, 46.1, 46.5, 45.0, 47.7, 49.7, 52.4, 55.0, 57.6, 56.1, 55.8;
• Composite PMI: 48.4, 49.1, 50.4, 52.4, 50.6, 47.7, 46.3, 47.0, 47.4, 45.9, 46.4, 48.5, 50.6, 53.9, 54.2, 52.6, 50.7, 49.9, 49.0, 46.3, 45.1, 45.7, 46.9, 48.1, 51.3, 53.7, 54.3, 55.1, 55.6.

08:00 – EUR: Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Index. Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index of Eurozone Manufacturing Activity by S&P Global (Preliminary Release)

The eurozone manufacturing and services PMIs are significant indicators of the European economy state. Readings above 50 are positive and strengthen the euro, while readings below 50 are negative for the currency. If the figures are worse than the forecasted and/or the previous value, the euro will be affected negatively.

Previous values:

• Manufacturing PMI: 45.8, 45.8, 45.8, 47.3, 45.7, 46.1, 46.5, 46.6, 44.4, 43.1, 47.2, 42.7, 43.4, 44.8, 45.8, 47.3, 48.5, 48.8 in January 2023;
• Services PMI: 52.9, 51.9, 52.8, 53.2, 53.3, 51.5, 50.2, 48.4, 48.8, 47.8, 48.7, 50.9, 52.0, 55.1, 56.2, 55.0, 52.7, 50.8 in January 2023;
• Composite PMI: 51.0, 50.2, 50.9, 52.2, 51.7, 50.3, 49.2, 47.9, 47.6, 46.5, 47.2, 48.6, 52.8, 54.1, 53.7, 52.0, 50.3, 49.3 in January 2023.

08:30 – GBP: Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Index. Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index of the UK Manufacturing Sector by S&P Global (Preliminary Release)

The manufacturing and services PMIs serve as a vital indicator of the UK economy’s health. The services sector employs the majority of the UK’s working-age population and contributes approximately 75% of GDP. Financial services continue to be the most important part of the services sector. If the data is worse than forecast and the previous value, the British pound will likely experience a short-term but sharp decline. If the data exceeds the forecast and the previous value, it will have a positive impact on the currency. At the same time, a PMI reading above 50 is favorable and strengthens the British pound, while a reading below 50 is negative for the currency.

Previous values:

• Manufacturing PMI: 52.5, 52.1, 50.9, 51.2, 49.1, 50.3, 47.5, 47.0, 46.2, 44.8, 44.3, 45.3, 46.5, 47.1, 47.8, 47.9, 49.3, 47.0, 45.3, 46.5, 46.2, 48.4;
• Services PMI: 53.7, 52.5, 52.1, 52.9, 55.0, 53.1, 53.8, 54.3, 53.4, 49.5, 49.3, 51.5, 53.7, 55.2, 55.9, 52.9, 53.5, 48.7, 49.9, 48.8, 48.8, 50.0, 50.9, 52.6;
• Composite PMI: 53.8, 52.8, 52.3, 53.0, 54.1, 52.8, 53.0, 52.9, 52.1, 48.7, 48.5, 50.8, 52.8, 54.0, 54.9, 52.2, 53.1, 48.5 in January 2023.

13:45 – USD: Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Index of the US Economy by S&P Global. Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (Preliminary Release)

The PMIs of the most important US economic sectors, released by S&P Global, are an important gauge of the US economic conditions. A PMI reading above 50 signals bullishness, bolstering the US dollar, whereas a reading below 50 bodes negatively for the greenback.

Previous values:

• Manufacturing PMI: 47.9, 49.6, 51.6, 51.3, 50.0, 51.9, 52.2, 50.7, 47.9, 50.0, 49.8, 49.0, 46.3, 48.4, 50.2, 47.3, 46.9, 46.2, 47.7, 50.4, 52.0, 51.5;
• Services PMI: 55.7, 55.0, 55.3, 54.8, 51.3, 51.7, 52.3, 52.5, 51.4, 50.6, 50.1, 52.3, 54.4, 54.9, 53.6, 50.6, 46.8, 44.7, 46.2, 47.8, 49.3, 43.7, 47.3, 52.7, 53.4, 55.6;
• Composite PMI: 54.6, 54.3, 54.8, 54.5, 51.3, 52.1, 52.5, 52.0, 50.9, 50.7, 50.2, 52.0, 53.2, 54.3, 53.4, 52.3, 50.1, 46.8 in January 2023.

Tuesday, September 24

04:30 – AUD: Reserve Bank of Australia’s interest rate decision. RBA Accompanying Statement

Since June 2023, the RBA officials have kept the interest rate at 4.10%. However, at the November 2023 meeting, they raised the interest rate again to 4.35%.

Sluggish wage growth, a weak labor market, and a slowing growth rate are the main negative factors affecting the Australian economy.

After the March meeting, the Australian central bank decided to keep the rate at 4.35%. At the press conference, the RBA governor Michele Bullock mentioned the need for stronger evidence of weakening inflation before considering a rate cut. Additionally, RBA officials had previously hinted at the possibility of implementing new tightening measures in response to any signs of increasing consumer inflation.

It is hard to predict their decision this time. Nevertheless, the central bank may raise the interest rate again at this meeting.

Meanwhile, it is widely expected that the RBA leaders will once again take a pause.

In the accompanying statement, the RBA will explain the reasons for the rate decision. If the RBA signals the possibility of monetary easing in the near term, the risks of the Australian dollar depreciating will increase. Conversely, the tough rhetoric of the RBA’s accompanying statement may lead to a strengthening of the Australian dollar.

05:30 – AUD: RBA Press Conference

Michele Bullock will assess the current state of Australia’s economy and outline her department’s monetary policy. Market participants anticipate her insights on the central bank’s policies amid global recessionary trends and elevated inflation levels in Australia.

Any signals regarding her plans to adjust the RBA’s monetary policy parameters will cause a sharp surge in the Australian currency and stock market volatility. If the Australian Central Bank Governor avoids discussing monetary policy, the market response will be muted.

14:00 – USD: Consumer Confidence Index

The report on the results of a Conference Board survey conducted among nearly 3,000 US households offers respondents the opportunity to assess the current and future economic conditions as well as the overall economic situation in the United States. The confidence of US consumers in the country’s economic development and the stability of their economic situation is a key indicator of consumer spending, which significantly influences overall economic performance. A high level of consumer confidence indicates economic growth, while a low level indicates stagnation.

Previous values: 103.3, 100.3, 100.4, 102.0, 97.0, 104.7, 106.7, 114.8, 110.7, 102.0, 102.6, 103.0, 106.1, 117.0, 109.7, 102.3, 101.3, 104.2.

High indicator readings bolster the US dollar, while the decrease in the figures weakens the greenback.

17:10 – CAD: Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem’s Speech

The Canadian economy, as well as the global economy, has been slowing down since 2020, primarily due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. Initially, Tiff Macklem stated that the country’s economy was fairly resilient. However, the situation has changed rapidly, and not for the better. Now, it will be interesting to hear Macklem’s thoughts on the sustainability of the Canadian economy and the central bank’s monetary policy in the face of declining inflation. The Bank of Canada’s inflation target is in the 1% to 3% range.

If Tiff Macklem mentions the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy, the volatility in the Canadian dollar will grow sharply. A signal of monetary policy tightening will bolster the Canadian dollar. Conversely, an intent to ease monetary policy will have a negative impact on the currency.

Additionally, Tiff Macklem will likely clarify the Bank of Canada’s recent interest rate decision and provide guidance for investors ahead of the central bank’s next meeting, which is expected to take place next month.

Wednesday, September 25

01:30 – AUD: Consumer Price Index

The Consumer Price Inflation Index (CPI), published by the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Australian Bureau of Statistics, gauges retail prices of goods and services in Australia. The CPI is the most significant indicator of inflation and changes in consumer preferences. A high indicator reading is positive for the Australian dollar, while a low reading is negative. Previous values: +3.5%, +3.8%, +3.6%, +3.5%, +3.4%, +3.4% in January 2024.

The Australian central bank’s CPI inflation target ranges between 2% and 3%. According to the minutes of a recent RBA Board meeting, the bank may need to increase interest rates over time to bring inflation back to the target range and take further measures in the coming months to stabilize monetary conditions in Australia.

Notably, the RBA minutes had previously stated that the central bank would not raise rates until the CPI inflation reaches its target range of 2% to 3% on a sustainable basis. According to the RBA board, inflation hikes were unlikely until at least 2024. Now, the RBA, like most of the world’s other major central banks, is facing persistently high inflation and anticipates that the country’s inflation rate will gradually decrease to the target level by the end of 2025.

The expected positive CPI reading is likely positive for the Australian dollar. If the indicator readings are worse than the forecast or the previous value, the Australian dollar will face short-term negative effects.

Thursday, September 26

07:30 – CHF: Swiss National Bank’s Interest Rate Decision. SNB Monetary Policy Statement

Before the June 2022 SNB meeting, the deposit rate was negative and stood at -0.75%. However, this central bank meeting resulted in the rate being raised to -0.25%.

In the accompanying statement, SNB chairman Thomas Jordan noted that the Swiss franc is no longer overvalued. He also mentioned that the implementation of a tighter monetary policy is intended to prevent an increase in inflation in Switzerland.

Recently, the Swiss franc has once again gained popularity as a safe-haven asset. However, the possibility of intervention is currently preventing the currency from experiencing significant growth. SNB executives emphasize that intervening in the foreign exchange market is crucial for maintaining the low investment appeal of the franc and alleviating upward pressure on the currency.

The deposit rate is widely anticipated to remain at 1.25% during the September 2024 meeting, following the unexpected 0.25% reductions at the March and June meetings.

Traders will also scrutinize the SNB statement for signals regarding the SNB’s further monetary policy plans. The tough rhetoric of the statement will favor the Swiss franc. Conversely, the soft tone and inclination to resume the ultra-loose monetary policy will negatively affect the currency. In case the SNB board makes unexpected statements, volatility in the currency market and in the Swiss franc value is expected to increase.

08:00 – CHF: Swiss National Bank Press Conference

The SNB press conference will commence after the release of the rate decision. During the press conference and the speech of SNB chairman Thomas Jordan, volatility in the Swiss franc will surge. Traders expect signals regarding further plans of the SNB monetary policy. The tough rhetoric of Thomas Jordan’s speech will bolster the Swiss franc, while a softer tone and the SNB’s inclination towards a soft monetary policy will negatively affect the franc.

Volatility in the currency market and in the value of the Swiss franc is expected to rise.

12:30 – USD: US GDP Annual Growth Rate for Q2 (Final Estimate). Durable Goods Orders. Non Defense Goods Orders Excluding Aircraft. Jobless Claims

GDP data is one of the key indicators, along with labor market and inflation data, for the Fed in terms of its monetary policy. A positive indicator reading strengthens the US dollar, while a weak GDP report is negative for the currency. GDP grew +1.4% in Q1 2024 after gaining +3.4% in Q4 2023, +4.9%, +2.1% in Q2, +2.2% in Q1 2023.

If the data indicate a decline in GDP in Q2 2024, the US dollar will face significant pressure. Conversely, positive GDP figures will bolster the greenback and US stock indices.

GDP’s first preliminary estimate stood at +2.8% and the second one at +3.0%.

Durable goods are tangible products with an expected lifespan of more than three years, such as cars, computers, household appliances, and aircraft. These goods require significant investment to produce. Durable goods orders data is a leading indicator representing the change in the total value of new orders received by producers. An increase in orders for these goods indicates that manufacturers are ramping up production to meet the demand.

Capital goods are durable items used to produce other goods and services. The current indicator excludes goods manufactured in the defense and aviation sectors of the US economy.

Positive data boost the US dollar, while negative figures adversely affect it. Any indicator deterioration compared to previous and/or forecasted values may also have a detrimental effect on the US dollar quotes, while data surpassing the forecast will positively influence the currency.

• Previous values of the durable goods orders indicator: +9.8%, -6.9%, +0.1%, +0.6%, +0.8%, +0.7%, -6.9%, -0.3% in December 2023;
• Previous values of the non-defense goods orders excluding aircraft indicator: -0.1%, +0.5%, -0.9%, +0.2%, -0.1%, +0.4%, -0.4%, -0.6% in December 2023.

At the same time, the US Department of Labor will publish a weekly report on the US labor market with data on the number of initial and continuing jobless claims. The labor market condition, along with GDP and inflation data, play a vital role in the Federal Reserve’s decision-making process regarding monetary policy.

Higher-than-expected indicator readings and a rise in its values indicate weakness in the labor market, which could put pressure on the US dollar. Conversely, the indicator decline and its low values demonstrate labor market recovery and may positively impact the currency in the short term.

Initial and continuing jobless claims are expected to remain at the low levels seen before the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic. This bodes well for the US dollar, signaling stability in the US labor market.

• Previous initial jobless claims weekly values: 230k, 228k, 232k, 233k, 228k, 234k, 250k, 235k, 243k, 223k, 239k, 234k, 238k, 243k;
• Previous continuing jobless claims weekly values: 1,850k, 1,845k, 1,860k, 1,855k, 1,859k, 1,871k, 1,869k, 1,844k, 1,860k, 1,847k, 1,856k.

23:30 – JPY: Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI). Tokyo Core CPI excluding Food and Energy

The Tokyo Consumer Price Indexes, published by the Statistics Bureau of Japan, gauge the price change of a selected basket of goods and services over a given period. These indexes are key indicators for assessing inflation and consumer preferences.

Previous values YOY:

• Tokyo CPI: +2.6%, 2.2%, +2.3%, +2.2%, +1.8%, +2.6%, +2.5%, +1.8%, +2.4%, +2.6%, +3.3%, +2.8%, +2.9%, +3.2%, +3.2%, +3.2%, +3.5%, +3.3%, + 3.4%, +4.4% in January 2023;
• Tokyo CPI excluding food and energy: +1.6%, +1.5%, +1.8%, +2.2%, +1.8%, +2.9%, +3.1%, +3.3%, +3.5%, +3.6%, +3.8%, +4.0%, +4.0%, +4.0%, +3.8%, +3.9%, +3.8%, +3.4%, +3.1%, +3.0% in January 2023.

An indicator reading weaker than forecast and/or previous values may weaken the yen.

Friday, September 27

12:30 – USD: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data reflect the average amount of money consumers spend per month on durable goods, consumer goods, and services. The core PCE price index excludes food and energy prices. The annual core PCE is the main inflation gauge used by the US Fed as the primary inflation indicator.

The inflation rate, along with the labor market and GDP data, is crucial for the Fed in determining its monetary policy. Growing prices exert pressure on the central bank to tighten its policy and raise interest rates.

The PCE data above the forecasted and/or previous values may boost the US dollar, while a decline in the reading will likely exert a negative impact on the greenback.

Previous values YOY: +2.6%, +2.6%, +2.6%, +2.8%, +2.8%, +2.8%, +2.9% in January 2024, +2.9%, +3.2%, +3.5%, +3.7%, +3.8%, +4.3%, +4.3% +4.7%, +4.8%, +4.8%, +4.7%, +4.7%, +4.6%, +4.8%, +5.1%, +5.2%, +4.9%, +4.7%, +4.8%, +4.7%, +4.9%, +5.2%, +5.3%, +5.2% in January 2022.

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