Weekly Economic Calendar for 31.03.2025–06.04.2025

The US dollar is attempting to relieve pressure, benefiting from its status as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical concerns.

Next week, the US is scheduled to introduce mutual tariffs, leaving investors eager to gauge the potential impact on market movements. Although Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has reassured the public that these duties will only have a temporary effect on inflation, market pressure is mounting. Concurrently, Trump and his team seem to acknowledge the possibility of a recession in the US.

Concerns about tariff increases, the looming possibility of trade wars, and fears of an impending recession continue to sway markets. As a result, investors are trying to seek protection in traditional safe-haven assets such as government bonds and gold.

In the upcoming week of 31.03.2025–06.04.2025, market participants will focus on the macroeconomic data on China, Germany, Japan, Australia, the Eurozone, the USA, Switzerland, and Canada, as well as the results of the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting.

The key event will be the release of the US February labor market data on Friday.

Besides, Europe switched to daylight saving time on Sunday, March 30, which means that the timing for the release of important economic data has moved forward by an hour. At the end of the week, the countries of Oceania, including Australia and New Zealand, will switch to wintertime.

Note: During the coming week, new events may be added to the calendar, and/or some scheduled events may be canceled. GMT time

The article covers the following subjects:

Major Takeaways

• Monday: Chinese official PMIs, German CPIs, Japanese Tankan Large Manufacturing Index.
• Tuesday: the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting, Eurozone CPIs, US manufacturing PMIs (ISM).
• Wednesday: ADP report.
• Thursday: Chinese services PMIs (Caixin), US services PMIs (ISM).
• Friday: Canadian and US labor market data for March.
• Key event of the week: the US Department of Labor report for March.

Monday, March 31

01:30 – CNY: China’s Manufacturing and Services PMI by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP)

This indicator is an essential gauge of the overall Chinese economy. An indicator reading above 50 is positive for the yuan, while a value below 50 is negative for the currency.

Previous values: 50.2, 49.1 in January 2025, 50.1 (December 2024), 50.3, 50.1, 49.8, 49.1, 49.4, 49.5, 50.4, 50.8, 49.2, 49.0, 49.5, 50.2, 49.3, 49.0, 48.8, 49.2, 51.9, 52.6, 50.1 in January. The relative rise in the index above 50 strengthens the yuan. Data above 50 indicates increased economic activity, positively affecting the national currency. Conversely, if the index value is below 50, the yuan will face pressure and probably decline.

Likewise, the services sector PMI assesses the state of the services sector in the Chinese economy. An indicator result above 50 is seen as positive for the yuan. Previous values: 50.4, 50.2 in January 2025, 52.2 in December 2024, 50.0, 50.2, 50.0, 50.3, 50.2, 50.5, 51.2, 53.0, 50.7, 50.4, 50.6, 51.7, 51.5, 53.2, 54.5, 56.4, 58.2, 56.3, 54.4 in January. Despite the relative decline, the indicator is still above the 50 value, likely influencing the yuan positively. Conversely, the indicator below 50 suggests that the yuan will face pressure and probably decline.

06:00 – EUR: German Retail Sales

Retail sales is the main indicator of consumer spending in Germany. A high indicator reading boosts the euro, while a low one weakens the currency.

Previous values: +0.2% (+2.9% YoY), -1.6% (+1.8 YoY) in January 2025, -0.6% (+2.5% YoY), -1,5% (+1,0% YoY), +1.2% (+3.8% YoY), +1.6 (+2.1% YoY), -1.2% (-0.6% YoY), +2.6% (-1.9% YoY), -1.5% (+2.2% YoY), -0.3% (-1.2% YoY) in January 2024.

The data suggests that the German economy’s recovery has been uneven, with some months experiencing a slowdown. Indicator readings higher than forecasted and/or previous values are likely positive for the euro in the short term.

12:00 – EUR: German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (Preliminary Estimate)

The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is published by the European Statistics and is calculated using a methodology agreed upon by all EU countries. The HICP is an indicator for measuring inflation and is used by the European Central Bank to assess price stability. A positive index result strengthens the euro, while a negative one weakens it.

Previous values YoY: +2.6%, +2.8% in January 2025, +2.8% in December 2024, +2.4%, +2.4%, +1.8%, +2.0%, +2.6%, +2.5%, +2.8%, +2.4%, +2.3%, +2.7%, +3.1% in January 2024, +3.8% in December, +2.3% in November, +3.0% in October, +4.3% in September, +6.4% in August, +6.5% in July, +6.8% in June, +6.3% in May, +7.6% in April, +7.8% in March, +9.3% in February, +9,2% in January, +9.6% in December, +11.3% in November, +11.6% in October, +10.9% in September, +8.8% in August, +8.5% in July, +8.2% in June, +8.7% in May, +7.8% in April, +7.6% in March, +5.5% in February, +5.1% in January 2022.

The data suggests that German inflation continues to decelerate, albeit at a slower pace than expected. This situation is putting pressure on the European Central Bank to ease its monetary policy. Figures lower than the previous reading will likely affect the euro negatively. Conversely, the resumption of inflation growth may provoke the appreciation of the euro. The growth of the indicator values is a positive factor for the currency.

If the March data turns out to be better than previous values, the euro may strengthen in the short term.

23:50 – JPY: Tankan Large Manufacturing Index for Q1 2025

The index reflects general business conditions for Japan’s large manufacturing companies and estimates the current state of Japan’s export-oriented economy, which is heavily dependent on the industrial sector.

The index value above 0, the midline, is positive for the Japanese yen, while a reading below 0 is negative.

Previous quarterly values: 14 in Q4 2024, 13, 13, 11, 13, 9, 5, 1 in Q1 2023. A relative rise in the indicator will bolster the yen, while a relative decline, especially a slide into negative territory, will exert pressure on the currency.

Tuesday, April 1

00:30 – AUD: Retail Sales

The Retail Sales Index, published monthly by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, measures the total retail sales volume. The index is often considered an indicator of consumer confidence and spending, reflecting also the near-term state of the retail sector. In advanced economies, domestic consumption plays a significant role in driving GDP growth.

Therefore, deterioration of the indicator values may reveal problems with the country’s GDP growth in the future. This is a negative factor for the national currency, as the economic slowdown may force the national central bank to ease monetary policy for businesses by lowering interest rates in particular.

A surge in the index readings is usually positive for the Australian dollar.

The January 2025 index value: +0.3% (after -0.1% in December 2024, +0.8%, +0.6%, +0.1%, +0.7%, 0%, +0.5%, +0.6%, +0.1%, -0.4%, +0.2% +1.1%, -2.7%, +2.0%, -0.4%, +0.9%, +0.3%, +0.5%, -0.8%, +0.8%, 0%, +0.4%, +0.2%, +1.9%, -3.9%, +1.7%, +0.4%, +0.6%, +0.6%, +1.3%, +0.2% in previous months). If the data is weaker than the previous figures, the Australian dollar may experience a short-term decline. Conversely, if the data surpasses the previous values, the currency will likely strengthen.

01:45 – CNY: Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI

The Caixin Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a leading indicator of China’s manufacturing sector. As the world’s second-largest economy, China’s release of significant macroeconomic data may strongly influence the financial market.

Previous values: 50.8, 50.1 in January 2025, 50.5 in December 2024, 51.5, 50.3, 49.3, 50.4, 49.8, 51.8, 51.7, 51.4, 51.1, 50.9, 50.8, 50.8, 50.8, 50.7, 49.5, 50.6, 51.0, 49.2, 50.5, 50.9, 49.5, 50.0, 51.6, 49.2 in January 2023.

A decline in the indicator value and reading below 50 may negatively affect the renminbi, as well as commodity currencies such as the New Zealand and Australian dollar. Data that exceeds forecasted or previous values will have a positive impact on these currencies.

03:30 – AUD: Reserve Bank of Australia’s Interest Rate Decision. RBA Accompanying Statement

The Australian economy’s primary challenges include sluggish wage growth, a weak labor market, and a slowdown in growth rates.

At the February meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to cut the interest rate by 0.25% for the first time since October 2020. Back then, rates were on the rise, eventually reaching 4.35% in November 2023. According to the accompanying statement, the Governing Council was cautious about the prospect of further policy easing. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock emphasized in her statement that further rate cuts are not guaranteed and future decisions will be driven by economic data. Thus, the risks of keeping interest rates high or even raising them remain, providing support for the Australian dollar.

Previously, Governor Michele Bullock stated, “Inflation is still above our target, and it’s proving to be sticky.” Besides, she mentioned that inflation is “above the midpoint of the 2%–3% target range.”

Additionally, RBA officials had previously hinted at the possibility of implementing new tightening measures in response to any signs of increasing consumer inflation.

It is hard to predict their decision this time. Nevertheless, the central bank may raise the interest rate again at this meeting.

Meanwhile, it is widely expected that the RBA leaders will once again take a pause.

In the accompanying statement, the RBA will explain the reasons for the rate decision. If the RBA signals the possibility of monetary easing in the near term, the risks of the Australian dollar depreciating will increase. Conversely, the hawkish rhetoric of the RBA’s accompanying statement may lead to a strengthening of the Australian dollar.

04:30 – AUD: RBA Press Conference

Michele Bullock will assess the current state of Australia’s economy and outline her department’s monetary policy plans. Market participants anticipate her insights on the central bank’s policies amid global recessionary trends and elevated inflation levels in Australia.

Any signals regarding her plans to adjust the RBA’s monetary policy parameters will cause a volatility surge in the Australian currency and stock market. If the Australian Central Bank Governor avoids discussing monetary policy, the market response will be muted.

09:00 – EUR: Consumer Price Index. Core Consumer Price Index (Preliminary Releases)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), published by Eurostat, measures the price change of a selected basket of goods and services over a given period. The CPI is a key indicator for evaluating inflation and consumer preferences. A positive indicator result strengthens the euro, while a negative one weakens it.

Previous values YOY: +2.4%, +2.5% in January 2025, +2.4% in December 2024, +2.2%, +2.0%, +1.7%, +2.2%, +2.6%, +2.5%, +2.6%, +2.4%, +2.4%, +2.6%, +2.8% in January 2024, +2.9%, +2.4%, +2.9%, +4.3%, +5.2%, +5.3%, +5.5%, +6.1%, +6.1%, +7.0%, +6.9%, +8,5%, +8.6% in January 2023, +9.2%, +10.1%, +10.6%, +9.9%, +9.1%, +8.9%, +8.6%, +8.1%, +7.4%, +7.4%, +5.9%, +5.1% in January 2022.

If the data is worse than the forecasted value, the euro may face a short-term but sharp decline. Conversely, if the data surpasses the forecast and/or the previous value, it could strengthen the euro in the short term. The ECB’s consumer inflation target is just below 2.0%, and the reading suggests that inflation continues to decline in the eurozone.

According to the accompanying statement following the ECB’s October meeting, when its leaders decided to cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, the regulator stated that the disinflation process is underway.

The Core Consumer Price Index (Core CPI) determines the price change of a selected basket of goods and services over a given period and is a key indicator for assessing inflation and consumer preference. Food and energy are excluded from this indicator in order to provide a more accurate assessment. A high result strengthens the euro, while a low one weakens it.

Previous values YOY: +2.6%, +2.7% in January 2025, 2.7% in December 2024, +2.7%, +2.7%, +2.7%, +2.8%, +2.9%, +2.9%, +2.9%, +2.7%, +2.9%, +3.1%, +3.3% in January 2024, +3.4%, +3.6% +4.2%, +4.5%, +5.3%, +5.5%, +5.5%, +5.3%, +5.3%, +5.6%, +5.7%, +5.6%, +5.3%, +5.2%, +5.0%, +5.0%, +4.8%, +4.3%, +4.0%, +3.7%, +3.8%, +3.5%, +3.0%, +2.7%, +2.3% in January 2022.

If the March 2025 figures are weaker than the previous or forecasted value, the euro may be negatively affected. If the data turns out to be better than the forecasted or previous value, the currency will likely grow.

According to recently reported data, the eurozone’s core inflation rate is still high, above the ECB’s target of 2.0%. As a result, the ECB is inclined to maintain high interest rates, which is favorable for the euro in normal economic conditions.

14:00 – USD: US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index

The US PMI published by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) is an important measure of the US economy. When the index surpasses 50, it bolsters the US dollar, whereas readings below 50 have a detrimental effect on the greenback.

Previous values: 50.3, 50.9 in January 2025, 49.3 in December 2024, 48.4, 46.5, 47.2, 47.2, 46.8, 48.5, 48.7, 49.2, 50.3, 47.8, 49.1 in January 2024, 47.4 in December, 46.7 in November, 46.7 in October, 49.0 in September, 47.6 in August, 46.4 in July, 46.0 in June, 46.9 in May, 47.1 in April, 46.3 in March, 47.7 in February, 47.4 in January 2023.

The index has been below the 50 level for several months now, indicating a slowdown in this sector of the US economy. The growth of index values supports the US dollar. Conversely, if the index reading falls below the forecasted values or below 50, the greenback may sharply depreciate in the short term.

Wednesday, April 2

12:15 – USD: ADP Private Sector Employment Report

The ADP report on private sector employment significantly impacts the market and the US dollar. An increase in this indicator value positively affects the greenback. The number of workers in the US private sector is expected to increase again in February after rising by 77k in February, 183k in January 2025, 176k in December 2024,146k in November, 184k in October, 159k in September, 103k in August, 111k in July, 155k in June, 157k in May, 188k in April, 208k in March, 155k in February, 111k in January 2024, 158k in December, 104k in November, 111k in October, 137k in September, 135k in August, 307k in July, 543k in June, 206k in May, 293k in April, 103k in March, 275k in February, 131k in January 2023.

The growth of the index values may positively affect the US dollar while law index readings adversely. A negative market reaction and a potential decline in the dollar may occur if the data turns out to be worse than forecasted.

The ADP report is not directly correlated with the official data of the US Department of Labor, which is due on Friday. However, the ADP report often serves as a forerunner of the department’s data and significantly influences the market.

Thursday, April 3

01:30 – AUD: Balance of Trade

Balance of Trade is an indicator that measures the ratio between exports and imports. An increase in Australian exports leads to a larger trade surplus, positively affecting the Australian dollar. Previous values (in billion Australian dollars): 5.620 in January 2025, 5.085 in December, 7.079 in November, 5.953 in October, 4,609 in September, 5.644 in August, 5.636 in July, 5.425 in June, 5.052 in May, 6.678 in April, 4.841 in March, 6.707 in February, and 9.873 in January 2024.

A decrease in the trade surplus could negatively affect the Australian dollar, while an increase in the indicator figure may bolster the currency.

01:45 – CNY: Caixin China General Services PMI

The Caixin Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a leading indicator of China’s services sector. Since China’s economy is the second largest in the world, the release of its significant macroeconomic indicators can profoundly influence the overall financial market.

Previous values: 51.4, 51.0 in January 2024, 52.2 in December 2024, 51,5, 52.0, 50.3, 51.6, 52.1, 51.2, 54.0, 52.5, 52.7, 52.5, 52.7 in January 2024, 52.9, 51.5, 50.4, 50.2, 51.8, 54.1, 53.9, 57.1, 56.4, 57.8, 55.0, 52.9 in January 2023.

Although an index value above 50 indicates growth, a relative decline in the indicator may adversely affect the yuan. Since China is the most important trade and economic partner of Australia and New Zealand, a deterioration in Chinese macro data may negatively impact the Australian and New Zealand dollars. Conversely, an increase in Chinese macro figures is usually positive for these currencies.

06:30 – CHF: Consumer Price Index

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) reflects the retail price trends for a group of goods and services comprising the consumer basket. The CPI is a key gauge of inflation. Additionally, the index has a significant impact on the value of the Swiss franc.

In February 2025, consumer inflation gained +0.6% (+0.3% YoY), after -0.1% (+0.4% YoY) in January 2025, -0.1% (+0.6% YoY) in December, -0.1% (+0.7% YoY) in November, -0.1% (+0.6% YoY) in October, -0.3% (+0.8% YoY) in September, 0% (+1.1% YoY) in August, -0.2% (+1.3% YoY) in July, 0% (+1.3% YoY) in June, +0.3% (+1.4% YoY) in May, +0.3% (+1.4% YoY) in April, 0% (+1.2% YoY) in February, +0.2% (+1.3% YoY) January 2024, +1.7% in December 2023, +1.4% in November, and +1.7% YoY in October.

An index reading below the forecasted or previous value may weaken the Swiss franc, as low inflation will force the Swiss Central Bank to ease its monetary policy. Conversely, a high reading would be positive for the Swiss franc.

14:00 – USD: US ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index

The PMI assesses the state of the US services sector, accounting for about 80% of US GDP. The share of final goods production is about 20% of GDP, including 1% for agriculture and 18% for industrial production. Therefore, the publication of the services sector data significantly impacts the US dollar. An indicator reading above 50 is positive for the currency.

Previous values: 53.5 in February, 52.8 in January 2025, 54.1 in December 2024, 52.1 in November, 56.0 in October, 54.9 in September, 51.5 in August, 51.4 in July, 48.8 in June, 53.8 in May, 49.4 in April, 51.4 in March, 52.6 in February, 53.4 in January 2024, 50.5 in December, 52.5 in November, 51.9 in October, 53.4 in September, 54.5 in August, 52.7 in July, 53.9 in June, 50.3 in May, 51, 9 in April, 51.2 in March, 55.1 in February, 55.2 in January 2023, 49.6 in December, 56.5 in November, 54.4 in October, 56.9 in August, 56.7 in July, 55.3 in June, 55.9 in May, 57.1 in April, 58.3 in March, 56.5 in February, 59.9 in January 2022.

The growth of index values will favorably affect the US dollar. However, a relative decline in the index values and readings below 50 may negatively affect the US dollar in the short term.

Friday, April 4

12:30 – CAD: Canada Unemployment Rate

Statistics Canada will release the country’s November labor market data. Massive business closures due to the coronavirus and layoffs have also contributed to the unemployment rate, increasing from the usual 5.6%–5.7% to 7.8% in March and 13.7% in May 2020.

In February 2025, unemployment stood at 6.6% against 6.6% in January 2025, 6.7% in December 2024, 6.8% in November, 6.5% in October and September, 6.6% in August, 6.4% in July and June, 6.2% in May, 6.1% in April and March, 5.8% in February, 5.7% in January 2024, 5.8% in December and November 2023, 5.7% in October, 5.5% in September, August, and July, 5.4% in June, 5.2% in May, 5.0% in April, March, February, January, December, 5.1% in November, 5.2% in October and September, 5.4% in August, 4.9% in July and June, 5.1% in May, 5.2% in April, 5.3% in March, 5.5% in February, 6.5% in January 2022.

If the unemployment rate continues to rise, the Canadian dollar will depreciate. If the data exceeds the previous value, the Canadian dollar will strengthen. A decrease in the unemployment rate is a positive factor for the Canadian dollar, while an increase is a negative factor.

12:30 – USD: Average Hourly Earnings. Private Nonfarm Payrolls. Unemployment Rate

The most significant US labor market indicators for March. 

Previous values: +0.3% in February, +0.5% in January 2025, +0.3% in December 2024, +0.4% in November, October, September, and August, +0.2% in July, +0.3% in June, +0.4% in May, +0.2% in April, +0.3% in March, +0.1% in February, +0.6% in January 2024, +0.4% in December and November 2023, +0.2% in October, September, and August, +0.4% in July and June, +0.3% in May, +0.5% in April, +0.3% in March, +0.2% in February, +0.3% in January 2023 / 227k in November, 36k in October, +255k in September, +78k in August, +114k in July, +118k in June, 216k in May, +108k in April, +310k in March, +236k in February, +256k in January 2024, +290k in December 2023, +182k in November, +165k in October, +246k in September, +210k in August 2023, +210k in August 2023 / 4.2% in November, 4.1% in October and September, 4.2% in August, 4.3% in July, 4.1% in June, 4.0% in May, 3.9% in April, 3.8% in March, 3.9% in February, 3.7% in January 2024, December and November 2023, 3.9% in October, 3.8% in September and August, 3.5% in July, 3.6% in June, 3.7% in May, 3.4% in April, 3.5% in March, 3.6% in February, 3.4% in January 2023.

Overall, the values are positive. Nevertheless, it is often difficult to predict the market’s reaction to the data release, given that many previous figures can be revised. This task becomes even more challenging now due to the contradictory economic situation in the US and many other large economies with the looming risk of recession alongside persistently high inflation.

Regardless, the release of the US labor market data is anticipated to prompt increased volatility not just in the US dollar but also in the entire financial market. Most risk-averse investors will probably prefer to stay out of the market during this period.

Price chart of AUDUSD in real time mode

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