The past week began with a sharp rally in the cryptocurrency market, as Bitcoin surged to a fresh all-time high above 123,000.00 early on. The upcoming week marks the final full trading week of the month, and if Bitcoin holds its ground, July may become the strongest month of the year. Meanwhile, the US dollar remains under pressure.
In the week of July 21–27, 2025, investors will turn their attention to preliminary PMI releases from Germany, the Eurozone, the UK, and the US, alongside the European Central Bank’s monetary policy decision. Markets will also be watching key macroeconomic data out of Japan and the UK, as well as the outcome of the People’s Bank of China’s meeting. Notably, the Fed has entered its so-called blackout period ahead of next week’s monetary policy meeting.
Note: During the coming week, new events may be added to the calendar, and/or some scheduled events may be canceled. GMT time
The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
- Monday: People’s Bank of China interest rate decision.
- Tuesday: minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s July meeting, the euro area bank lending survey.
- Wednesday: no important macroeconomic statistics are scheduled.
- Thursday: preliminary PMI releases from Germany, the Eurozone, the UK, the US, the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision, and Tokyo CPIs.
- Friday: UK retail sales.
- Key event of the week: the European Central Bank’s meeting.
Monday, July 21
There are no important macroeconomic statistics scheduled to be released. However, pay attention to the results of the People’s Bank of China meeting.
01:15 – CNY: People’s Bank of China Interest Rate Decision
Since May 2012, the People’s Bank of China has been lowering its interest rate to support Chinese manufacturers. Last time, the bank reduced the rate in October 2024 after a long pause since August 2023 and a brief halt in July, bringing the rate down by 0.1% to its current level of 3.00%.
In 2024, the world’s major central banks have also started a policy easing cycle amid slowing inflation. What will the Chinese central bank do this time after pausing since September 2023 and easing policy in July 2024?
The People’s Bank of China will likely keep the interest rate unchanged at 3.00% at this meeting, although other decisions are also possible.
Should the People’s Bank of China make statements that deviate from expectations, volatility may increase across the entire financial market, particularly in the Asian one. Investors will closely watch the bank’s assessment of the Chinese economy’s prospects and its policy stance in the short term.
Tuesday, July 22
01:30 – AUD: Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
The document is published two weeks after the meeting and the interest rate decision. If the RBA is optimistic about the country’s labor market and GDP growth rate and is hawkish on the inflation outlook, the rate may be increased at the next meeting, which is favorable for the Australian dollar. The bank’s dovish rhetoric on inflation, in particular, is putting pressure on the Australian dollar.
At the July 2025 meeting, the RBA kept the interest rate unchanged at 3.85%. This move represents a shift away from the 12-year high of 4.35%, as the bank pointed to declining inflationary pressures and global uncertainties. This rate is now at its lowest since 2023.
At the conclusion of the July meeting, RBA governor Michele Bullock stated, “Betrayal would be to let inflation get out of hand.” She went on to emphasize, “We’re never going to go back from the level of prices now, but we can at least stop them from rising as quickly.” Bullock has also previously supported a strategy of “cautious easing.”
If the released minutes contain unexpected information regarding the RBA’s monetary policy issues, the volatility in the Australian dollar will increase.
08:00 – EUR: Euro Area Bank Lending Survey
A survey of the bank lending system conducted by EU experts in the financial sector is carried out four times a year. The primary goal of the survey is to gather comprehensive information about the conditions of bank lending in the Eurozone.
The ECB officials use this data when making decisions on the bank’s monetary policy. This report may cause increased volatility in the euro and European stock market quotes upon its release if it contains unexpected conclusions regarding lending conditions for businesses and households in the Eurozone.
Wednesday, July 23
There are no important macroeconomic statistics scheduled to be released.
Thursday, July 24
03:05 – AUD: Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock’s Speech
Michele Bullock will assess the current state of Australia’s economy and outline her department’s monetary policy. Market participants anticipate her insights on the central bank’s policies amid global recessionary trends and elevated inflation levels in Australia.
Any signals regarding her plans to adjust the RBA’s monetary policy parameters will cause a sharp surge in the Australian currency and stock market volatility. If the Australian Central Bank Governor avoids discussing monetary policy, the market response will be muted.
07:30 – EUR: Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Index of the German Economy by S&P Global. Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index of the German Economy by S&P Global (Preliminary Release)
The manufacturing and services PMIs are important indicators of the business environment and the health of the German economy. These sectors play a significant role in Germany’s GDP. A reading above 50 indicates a positive outlook and bolsters the euro, while a reading below 50 is negative for the euro. Conversely, data worse than the forecasted and/or the previous value will prove to be negative for the euro.
Previous values:
- Manufacturing PMI: 49.0, 48.3, 48.4, 48.3, 46.5, 45.0, 42.5 in December 2024, 43.0, 43.0, 40.6, 42.4, 43.2, 43.5, 45.4, 42.5, 41.9, 42.5, 45.5, 43.3, 40.8, 39.6, 38.8, 40.6, 43.2, 44.5, 44.7, 46.3, 47.3, 47.1, 46.2, 45.1, 47.8, 49.1, 49.3, 52.0, 54.8, 54.6;
- Services PMI: 49.7, 47.1, 49.0, 50.9, 51.1, 52.5, 51.2 in December 2024, 49.3, 51.6, 50.6, 51.2, 52.5, 53.1, 54.2, 53.2, 50.1, 48.3, 47.7, 45.7, 48.2, 50.3, 52.3, 54.1, 57.2, 56.0, 53.7, 50.9, 50.7, 49.2, 46.1, 46.5, 45.0, 47.7, 49.7, 52.4, 55.0, 57.6, 56.1, 55.8;
- Composite PMI: 50.4, 48.5, 50.1, 51.3, 50.4, 50.5, 48.0 in December 2024, 47.2, 48.6, 47.5, 48.4, 49.1, 50.4, 52.4, 50.6, 47.7, 46.3, 47.0, 47.4, 45.9, 46.4, 48.5, 50.6, 53.9, 54.2, 52.6, 50.7, 49.9, 49.0, 46.3, 45.1, 45.7, 46.9, 48.1, 51.3, 53.7, 54.3, 55.1, 55.6.
08:00 – EUR: Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Index. Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index of Eurozone Manufacturing Activity by S&P Global (Preliminary Release)
The Eurozone manufacturing and services PMIs are significant indicators of the European economy. Readings above 50 are positive and strengthen the euro, while readings below 50 are negative for the currency. If the figures are worse than the forecasted and/or the previous value, the euro will be affected negatively.
Previous values:
- Manufacturing PMI: 49.5, 49.4, 49.0, 48.6, 47.6, 46.6, 49.6 in December 2024, 45.2, 46.0, 45.0, 45.8, 45.8, 45.8, 47.3, 45.7, 46.1, 46.5, 46.6, 44.4, 43.1, 47.2, 42.7, 43.4, 44.8, 45.8, 47.3, 48.5, 48.8 in January 2023;
- Services PMI: 50.5, 49.7, 50.1, 51.0, 50.6, 51.3, 51.2 in December 2024, 49.5, 51.6, 51.4, 52.9, 51.9, 52.8, 53.2, 53.3, 51.5, 50.2, 48.4, 48.8, 47.8, 48.7, 50.9, 52.0, 55.1, 56.2, 55.0, 52.7, 50.8 in January 2023;
- Composite PMI: 50.6, 50,2, 50.1, 50.9, 50.2, 50.2, 48.0 in December 2024, 48.3, 50.0, 49.6, 51.0, 50.2, 50.9, 52.2, 51.7, 50.3, 49.2, 47.9, 47.6, 46.5, 47.2, 48.6, 52.8, 54.1, 53.7, 52.0, 50.3, 49.3 in January 2023.
08:00 – CHF: Swiss National Bank Chairman Martin Schlegel’s Speech
Volatility in the Swiss franc tends to increase as traders await signals from the Swiss National Bank’s chairman on the monetary policy outlook. The SNB has long favored a dovish stance, viewing the Swiss franc as overvalued. But with inflation now cooling, the backdrop has shifted.
A hawkish tone from Martin Schlegel will likely bolster the currency, while a dovish message and a reaffirmation of the SNB’s preference for policy easing may weigh on the currency.
08:30 – GBP: Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Index. Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index of the UK Manufacturing Sector by S&P Global (Preliminary Release)
The manufacturing and services PMIs serve as a vital indicator of the UK economy’s health. The services sector employs the majority of the UK’s working-age population and contributes approximately 75% of GDP. Financial services continue to be the most important part of the services sector. If the data is worse than the forecast and the previous value, the British pound will likely experience a short-term but sharp decline. If the data exceeds the forecast and the previous value, it will have a positive impact on the currency. At the same time, a PMI reading above 50 is favorable and strengthens the British pound, while a reading below 50 is negative for the currency.
Previous values:
- Manufacturing PMI: 47.7, 46.4, 45.4, 44.9, 46.9, 48.3, 48.0, 49.9, 51,5, 52.5, 52.1, 50.9, 51.2, 49.1, 50.3, 47.5, 47.0, 46.2, 44.8, 44.3, 45.3, 46.5, 47.1, 47.8, 47.9, 49.3, 47.0, 45.3, 46.5, 46.2, 48.4;
- Services PMI: 52.8, 50.9, 49.0, 52.5, 51.0, 50.9, 51.1 in December 2024, 50.8, 52.0, 51.4, 53.7, 52.5, 52.1, 52.9, 55.0, 53.1, 53.8, 54.3, 53.4, 49.5, 49.3, 51.5, 53.7, 55.2, 55.9, 52.9, 53.5, 48.7, 49.9, 48.8, 48.8, 50.0, 50.9, 52.6;
- Composite PMI: 52.0, 50.3, 48.5, 51.5, 50.5, 50.6, 50.4 in December 2024, 50.5, 51.8, 49.6, 53.8, 52.8, 52.3, 53.0, 54.1, 52.8, 53.0, 52.9, 52.1, 48.7, 48.5, 50.8, 52.8, 54.0, 54.9, 52.2, 53.1, 48.5 in January 2023.
12:15 – EUR: European Central Bank’s Interest Rate Decision. ECB Monetary Policy Statement
The European Central Bank will publish its decision on the main refinancing operations and the deposit facility rates, which currently stand at 2.15% and 2.00%, respectively.
The ECB’s tight stance on inflation and the level of key interest rates favor the euro, while a softer stance and lower rates weaken it. Given the high inflation in the Eurozone, according to the ECB leadership, the risk balance for the eurozone’s economic outlook remains negative.
The ECB warns that GDP growth may slow due to several challenges, including the EU’s energy crisis, heightened economic uncertainties, a global economic slowdown, and tightening financial conditions. Additionally, President Trump’s tariffs complicate an already delicate economic situation, raising the US average tariff rate to 22%, the highest since 1910. For the Eurozone, already facing weakening industrial production and the services sector, these tariffs are a significant concern. Analysts indicate that all European exporters will feel the strain, particularly the automobile industry, where tariffs have escalated to 25%. In light of the current situation, the ECB may lower its deposit rate to below 2.0% and resume quantitative easing, given the high risks of recession in the Eurozone. However, the possibility of taking a pause is not ruled out.
A dovish tone in the statements will negatively impact the euro. Conversely, a hawkish tone regarding the central bank’s monetary policy will bolster the euro.
12:45 – EUR: European Central Bank’s Press Conference
This press conference will draw significant attention from market participants. Volatility may increase not only in euro quotes but also across the entire financial market if the ECB leaders make unexpected statements. ECB executives will evaluate the current economic situation in the Eurozone and provide insights on the bank’s rate decision. Historically, after some ECB meetings and subsequent press conferences, the euro exchange rate experienced fluctuations of 3%–5% in a short time frame.
A dovish tone in the speech will negatively impact the euro. Conversely, a hawkish tone regarding the central bank’s monetary policy will bolster the euro.
13:45 – USD: Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Index of the US Economy by S&P Global. Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (Preliminary Releases)
The PMIs of the most important US economic sectors, released by S&P Global, are an important gauge of the US economic conditions. A PMI reading above 50 signals bullishness, bolstering the US dollar, whereas a reading below 50 bodes negatively for the greenback.
Previous values:
- Manufacturing PMI: 52.0, 52.0, 50.2, 50.2, 52.7, 51.2, 49.4 in December 2024, 49.7, 48.5, 47.6, 47.9, 49.6, 51.6, 51.3, 50.0, 51.9, 52.2, 50.7, 47.9, 50.0, 49.8, 49.0, 46.3, 48.4, 50.2, 47.3, 46.9, 46.2, 47.7, 50.4, 52.0, 51.5;
- Services PMI: 52.9, 53.7, 50.8, 54.4, 51.0, 52.9, 56.8 in December 2024, 56.1, 55.0, 55.2, 55.7, 55.0, 55.3, 54.8, 51.3, 51.7, 52.3, 52.5, 51.4, 50.6, 50.1, 52.3, 54.4, 54.9, 53.6, 50.6, 46.8, 44.7, 46.2, 47.8, 49.3, 43.7, 47.3, 52.7, 53.4, 55.6;
- Composite PMI: 52.9, 50.3, 50.6, 53.5, 51.6, 52.7, 55.4 in December 2024, 54.9, 54.1, 54.0, 54.6, 54.3, 54.8, 54.5, 51.3, 52.1, 52.5, 52.0, 50.9, 50.7, 50.2, 52.0, 53.2, 54.3, 53.4, 52.3, 50.1, 46.8 in January 2023.
23:30 – JPY: Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI). Tokyo Core CPI excluding Food and Energ
Tokyo’s consumer price indexes, published by the Statistics Bureau of Japan, gauge the price change of a selected basket of goods and services over a given period. These indexes are key indicators for assessing inflation and consumer preferences.
Previous values YoY:
- Tokyo CPI: +3.1%, +3.4%, +3.5%, +2.9%, +2.9%, +3.4%,+3.1%, +2.6%, +1.8%, +2.1%, +2.6%, 2.2%, +2.3%, +2.2%, +1.8%, +2.6%, +2.5%, +1.8%, +2.4%, +2.6%, +3.3%, +2.8%, +2.9%, +3.2%, +3.2%, +3.2%, +3.5%, +3.3%, + 3.4%, +4.4% in January 2023;
- Tokyo CPI excluding food and energy: +3.1%, +2.1%, +2.0%, +1.1%, +2.2%, +2.5%, +2.4%, +2.2%, +1.8%, +1.6%, +1.6%, +1.5%, +1.8%, +2.2%, +1.8%, +2.9%, +3.1%, +3.3%, +3.5%, +3.6%, +3.8%, +4.0%, +4.0%, +4.0%, +3.8%, +3.9%, +3.8%, +3.4%, +3.1%, +3.0% in January 2023.
The indicator reading lower than forecasted and/or previous values may weaken the yen, while a rise in the indicator may strengthen the currency.
Friday, July 25
06:00 – GBP: UK Retail Sales
The retail sales economic indicator is a key metric that tracks the level of consumer demand and significantly impacts market performance and the national currency. Additionally, it serves as an indirect indicator of inflation, making it a key concern for a country’s central bank and market participants.
The retail sales report is released by the UK Office for National Statistics. The Retail Sales change is considered to indicate the consumer spending level. High indicator values are positive for the British pound, while low readings are negative.
Previous index values YoY: -1.3%, +5.0%, +2.6%, +2.2%, +1.0% in January 2025, +3.6% in December 2024, 0%, +2.0%, +3.2%, +2.3%, +1.5%, -0.3%, +1.7%, -2.3%, +0.4%, -0.3%, -0.3%, +0.4% in January 2024, -2.8% in December 2023, +0.0%, -2.3%, -1.1%, -1.2%, -3.1%, -1.8 in June 2023.
Price chart of EURUSD in real time mode
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