Following the Fed meeting in June, the US dollar continues to face headwinds, while US stock indices have hit new all-time highs. This week, market participants will review the minutes of the Fed’s June meeting to better assess the prospects for the US central bank’s monetary policy.
Additionally, in the upcoming week of 07.07.2025–13.07.2025, market participants will focus on the release of crucial macroeconomic statistics from the Eurozone, the US, China, Germany, Canada, as well as on the results of the meetings of the central banks of Australia and New Zealand.
Note: During the coming week, new events may be added to the calendar, and/or some scheduled events may be canceled. GMT time
The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
- Monday: Eurozone retail sales
- Tuesday: RBA interest rate decision
- Wednesday: Chinese consumer price indices, RBNZ interest rate decision, FOMC minutes
- Thursday: No important macroeconomic data releases scheduled
- Friday: German consumer price indices, Canadian labor market data
- Key event of the week: the June FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday
Monday, July 7
09:00 – EUR: Eurozone Retail Sales
Retail sales data is the main measure of consumer spending, indicating the change in sales volume. A high indicator result strengthens the euro, while a low one weakens it.
Previous values: +0.1% (+2.3% YoY), -0.1% (+1.5% YoY), -0.3% (+2.3 YoY), -0.3% (+1.5% YoY), -0.2% (+1.9% YoY) in January 2025, +0.1% (+1.2% YoY) in December 2024, -0.5% (+1.9% YoY), +0.5% (+2.9% YoY), +0.2% (+0.8% YoY), +0.1% (-0.1% YoY), -0.3% (-0.3% YoY), +0.1% (+0.3% YoY), -0.5% (0% YoY), +0.8% (+0.7% YoY), -0.5% (-0.7% YoY), +0.1% (-1.0% YoY) in January 2024, -1.1% (-0.8% YoY) in December, -0.3% (-1.1% YoY) in November, +0.1% (-1.2% YoY) in October, -0.3% (-2.9% YoY) in Sept, 1.2% (-2.1% YoY) in August, -0.2% (-1.0% YoY) in July, -0.3% (-1.4% YoY) in June, 0% (-2.4% YoY) in May, -1.2% (-2.9% YoY) in April, -0.8% (-3.3% YoY) in March, +0.3% (-2.4% YoY) in February, -2.7% (-1.8% YoY) in January, +0.8% (-2.8% YoY) in December 2022.
The data suggests that retail sales have not returned to pre-pandemic levels after a severe drop in March–April 2020, when Europe was under strict quarantine measures, and are periodically declining again. Nevertheless, values exceeding the forecast will strengthen the euro.
Tuesday, July 8
04:30 – AUD: Reserve Bank of Australia’s Interest Rate Decision. RBA Accompanying Statement
The Australian economy’s primary challenges include sluggish wage growth, a weak labor market, and a slowdown in growth rates.
At the February meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to cut the interest rate by 0.25% for the first time since October 2020. Back then, rates were on the rise, eventually reaching 4.35% in November 2023. According to the accompanying statement, the Governing Council was cautious about the prospect of further policy easing. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock emphasized in her statement that further rate cuts are not guaranteed and future decisions will be driven by economic data. Thus, the risks of keeping interest rates high or even raising them remain, providing support for the Australian dollar.
Previously, Governor Michele Bullock stated, “Inflation is still above our target, and it’s proving to be sticky.” Besides, she mentioned that inflation is “above the midpoint of the 2%–3% target range.”
Additionally, RBA officials had previously hinted at the possibility of implementing new tightening measures in response to any signs of increasing consumer inflation.
It is hard to predict their decision this time. Nevertheless, the central bank may raise the interest rate again at this meeting.
For now, it is widely expected that RBA policymakers will take a pause, keeping the interest rate at 3.85%.
In the accompanying statement, the RBA will explain the reasons for the rate decision. If the RBA signals the possibility of monetary easing in the near term, the risks of the Australian dollar depreciating will increase. Conversely, the hawkish rhetoric of the RBA’s accompanying statement may lead to a strengthening of the Australian dollar.
05:30 – AUD: RBA Press Conference
Michele Bullock will assess the current state of Australia’s economy and outline her department’s monetary policy plans. Market participants anticipate her insights on the central bank’s policies amid global recessionary trends and elevated inflation levels in Australia.
Any signals regarding her plans to adjust the RBA’s monetary policy parameters will cause a volatility surge in the Australian currency and stock market. If the Australian Central Bank Governor avoids discussing monetary policy, the market response will be muted.
Wednesday, July 9
01:30 – CNY: Consumer Price Index (CPI)
The National Bureau of Statistics of China will release its fresh monthly data on consumer prices. The growth of consumer prices may trigger the acceleration of inflation, prompting the People’s Bank of China to implement a tighter fiscal policy. Higher consumer inflation may cause yuan appreciation, while a low result may exert pressure on the currency.
Since China is the world’s second-largest economy, the publication of its significant macroeconomic data has a notable impact on the global financial markets. This influence extends particularly to the yuan, other Asian currencies, the US dollar, and commodity currencies. Moreover, China serves as the largest buyer of commodities and supplier of a wide range of finished goods to the global commodity market.
In May 2025, the consumer inflation index value stood at -0.2% (-0.1% YoY) after +0.1% (-0.1% YoY) in April, -0.2% (-0.7% YoY) in February, +0.7% (+0.5% YoY) in January 2025, -0.6% (+0.2% YoY) in November 2024, -0.3% (+0.3% YoY) in October, 0% (+0.4% YoY) in September, +0.5% (+0.5% YoY) in July 2024, -0.2% (+0.2% YoY) in June, -0.1% (+0.3% YoY) in May, +0.1% (+0.3% YoY) in April, +0.1% (-2.7% YoY) in December 2023, -0.5% (-0.5% YoY) in November, +0.2% (0% YoY) in September, +0.3% (+0.1% YoY) in July, -0.2% (0% YoY) in June, -0.2% (0% YoY) in May, -0.2% (+0.2% YoY).
The increase in the consumer inflation index will positively affect the renminbi quotes, as well as commodity currencies. Conversely, if the data is worse than forecasted and there is a relative decline in the CPI, it may adversely affect the currencies, particularly the Australian dollar, given that China is Australia’s largest trade and economic partner.
02:00 – NZD: Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Interest Rate Decision. RBNZ Accompanying Statement
Previously, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) indicated that the economy no longer required the same level of monetary stimulus. Afterward, the bank decided to ease the monetary policy in August 2024, reducing the official cash rate by 0.25% to 5.25%. Prior to this change, the RBNZ maintained a pause for eight consecutive meetings. In October and November, the rate was cut again by 0.50% each time. In 2025, the RBNZ continued its policy easing cycle, reducing the interest rate to the current level of 3.25%.
Economists expect New Zealand’s borrowing costs to fall further amid a sustained slowdown in inflation and a volatile labor market.
The New Zealand currency faced significant pressure after the RBNZ opted to cut the interest rate. The accompanying statement revealed that the decision was made given expectations of a further drop in inflation, which is gradually returning to the target range of 1.0%–3.0%. Inflation expectations have also decreased.
At this meeting, the RBNZ may either reduce the interest rate again, advocating for further monetary policy easing, or leave the rate at the current level. Market participants monitoring the New Zealand dollar performance should be prepared for a notable uptick in volatility during this time.
In the accompanying statement and commentary, the RBNZ officials will explain the interest rate decision and the economic factors that influenced it.
18:00 – USD: Federal Open Market Committee Meeting Minutes
The FOMC minutes release is extremely important for determining the course of the Fed’s current policy and the prospects for US interest rate hikes. Volatility in financial markets usually increases during the minutes’ publication, as they often reveal changes or provide clarifications from the latest FOMC meeting.
Following the December 18, 2024, meeting, central bank governors decided to reduce the federal funds rate by 0.25% to 4.50% and indicated a leaning towards further monetary policy easing to bolster the labor market.
However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that a pause in rate cuts is also possible. He emphasized that the US Fed officials remain confident that inflation is on track to reach the 2.0% target and that there is no need to rush to reduce rates given continued economic growth and a robust labor market.
Following the meetings in the first half of 2025, the Fed’s interest rate remained at 4.50%.
Many market participants now assume that the Fed will maintain the interest rate unchanged at 4.50%. Moreover, long-term forecasts suggest there may be a gradual reduction by the end of 2025, indicating fewer adjustments than previously anticipated.
The dovish tone of the minutes will positively impact stock indices and negatively affect the US dollar. The hawkish Fed’s rhetoric on the monetary policy may boost the greenback.
Thursday, July 10
There are no important macroeconomic statistics scheduled to be released.
Friday, July 11
06:00 – EUR: German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (Final Estimate)
The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is published by the European Statistics and is calculated using a methodology agreed upon by all EU countries. The HICP is an indicator for measuring inflation and is used by the European Central Bank to assess price stability. A positive index result strengthens the euro, while a negative one weakens it.
Previous values YoY: +2.1%, +2.2%, +2.3%, +2.6%, +2.8% in January 2025, +2.6%, +2.8% in December 2024, +2.4%, +2.4%, +1.8%, +2.0%, +2.6%, +2.5%, +2.8%, +2.4%, +2.3%, +2.7%, +3.1% in January 2024, +3.8% in December, +2.3% in November, +3.0% in October, +4.3% in September, +6.4% in August, +6.5% in July, +6.8% in June, +6.3% in May, +7.6% in April, +7.8% in March, +9.3% in February, +9,2% in January, +9.6% in December, +11.3% in November, +11.6% in October, +10.9% in September, +8.8% in August, +8.5% in July, +8.2% in June, +8.7% in May, +7.8% in April, +7.6% in March, +5.5% in February, +5.1% in January 2022.
The data indicates a slower pace of inflation in Germany, which in turn is forcing the ECB to ease its monetary policy, especially given the risks of recession in the Eurozone.
Figures lower than the previous reading will likely affect the euro negatively. Conversely, the resumption of inflation growth may provoke the appreciation of the euro.
If the June data turns out to be better than previous values, the euro may strengthen in the short term.
The preliminary estimate stood at +2.0%.
12:30 – CAD: Canada Unemployment Rate
Statistics Canada will release the country’s November labor market data. Massive business closures due to the coronavirus and layoffs have also contributed to the unemployment rate, increasing from the usual 5.6–5.7% to 7.8% in March and 13.7% in May 2020.
In May 2025, unemployment stood at 7.0% against 6.9% in April, 6.7% in March, 6.6% in February and January 2025, 6.7% in December 2024, 6.8% in November, 6.5% in October and September, 6.6% in August, 6.4% in July and June, 6.2% in May, 6.1% in April and March, 5.8% in February, 5.7% in January 2024, 5.8% in December and November 2023, 5.7% in October, 5.5% in September, August, and July, 5.4% in June, 5.2% in May, 5.0% in April, March, February, January, December, 5.1% in November, 5.2% in October and September, 5.4% in August, 4.9% in July and June, 5.1% in May, 5.2% in April, 5.3% in March, 5.5% in February, 6.5% in January 2022.
If the unemployment rate continues to rise, the Canadian dollar will depreciate. If the data exceeds the previous value, the Canadian dollar will strengthen. A decrease in the unemployment rate is a positive factor for the Canadian dollar, while an increase is a negative factor.
Price chart of AUDUSD in real time mode
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