The article covers the following subjects:
Highlights and key points
- Main scenario: consider short positions from corrections below the level of 0.8742 with a target of 0.8200 – 0.8000. A sell signal: if the price holds below 0.8742. Stop Loss: above 0.8800, Take Profit: 0.8200 – 0.8000.
- Alternative scenario: breakout and consolidation above the level of 0.8742 will allow the pair to continue rising to the levels of 0.9044 – 0.9222. A buy signal: once the level of 0.8742 is broken to the upside. Stop Loss: below 0.8700, Take Profit: 0.9044 – 0.9222.
Main scenario
Consider short positions from corrections below the level of 0.8742 with a target of 0.8200 – 0.8000.
Alternative scenario
Breakout and consolidation above the level of 0.8742 will allow the pair to continue rising to the levels of 0.9044 – 0.9222.
Analysis
A downside fifth wave of larger degree (5) is presumably unfolding on the daily time frame. As its parts, wave 1 of (5) is formed, a bullish correction is completed as the second wave 2 of (5), and the third wave 3 of (5) continues unfolding. On the H4 time frame, the third wave iii of 3 is formed, and a local correction is presumably nearing completion as the fourth wave iv of 3. Apparently, wave (с) of iv is coming to its end on the H1 time frame. If this assumption is correct, the USDCHF pair will continue to fall to the levels of 0.8200 – 0.8000 once wave (с) of iv is complete. The level of 0.8742 is critical in this scenario. Its breakout will allow the pair to continue rising to the levels of 0.9044 – 0.9222.
Price chart of USDCHF in real time mode
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