Shares of
The NAGA Group AG (XETR: N4G) surged to their highest level in four months
after research firm SMC maintained its “BUY” rating while setting a
price target that implies 130% upside potential from current levels.
German Fintech NAGA Shares
Sees 130% Upside on Merger Synergies
The
Hamburg-based fintech company’s stock closed at €0.69 on May 27, with SMC
Research setting a price target of €1.60. Analysts describe cautious revenue and
margin estimates while maintaining confidence in the company’s growth
trajectory.
As a
result, N4G shares on the German stock exchange are up nearly 9% today
(Wednesday, May 28, 2025), testing the EUR 0.76 level — the highest since
January. If the stock reaches the EUR 1.60 target forecasted by SMC, it would
mark the highest value since July 2023.
NAGA
reported a 7% revenue increase to €16.4 million in the first quarter of 2025,
marking its return to growth after streamlining unprofitable operations in
2024. However, the company’s EBITDA fell to €1.0 million from €2.0 million
year-over-year, primarily due to increased marketing expenditure of €1.6
million compared to the same period last year.
SMC analyst
Holger Steffen noted the company’s improved operational metrics, including a
10.5% increase in daily trades per user to 2.3 and a 13.4% rise in copied
trades to 945,000. Customer lifetime value increased 14.2% to €3,300, though
customer acquisition costs rose 50.3% to €1,200 due to higher marketing spend.
“The
increased number of trades and, in particular, the higher volume of copied
trades were the main drivers behind the 7% growth in revenue,” Steffen
wrote in the research note.
Key Performance Indicators
|
KPI |
Q1 2024 |
Q1 2025 |
% Change |
Trend |
|
New Registered Users |
88,892 |
73,902 |
-16.8% |
↓ |
|
Newly Funded Accounts |
5,717 |
6,088 |
+6.5% |
↑ |
|
Daily Trades per Client |
2.09 |
2.31 |
+10.5% |
↑ |
|
Copy Trades |
833,446 |
945,047 |
+13.4% |
↑ |
|
Client Lifetime Value (EUR) |
2,880 |
3,290 |
+14.2% |
↑ |
|
Customer Acquisition Cost (EUR) |
801 |
1,204 |
+50.3% |
↓ |
|
Trading Volume (EUR m) |
64,723 |
47,296 |
-26.9% |
↓ |
NAGA Merger Synergies and
UK Expansion
The
analysis highlighted benefits from NAGA’s completed merger with Key Way Group,
parent company of CAPEX.com, which created a user base of approximately 1.5
million across more than 100 countries. The integration is expected to generate
annual cost savings of up to €9 million.
NAGA also
acquired Trade Capital UK for GBP 1.24 million in November 2024, providing
regulatory authorization to re-enter the British market after withdrawing in
2021. The company estimates the UK opportunity could generate€6.5 million in
revenue by 2026 with an EBITDA contribution of €2.5 million.
Financial Projections and
Targets
For 2025,
NAGA maintains guidance for revenue of €74 million, representing 19% growth,
with an EBITDA margin target of 17% compared to 13% in 2024. SMC’s estimates
are slightly more conservative, projecting revenue of €72.1 million and a 14.7%
EBITDA margin for the current year.
The
research firm’s model shows revenue reaching €225.1 million by 2031 with
operating margins of 30%. SMC uses a discount rate of 8.4% and applies a 20%
safety discount on target margins in its valuation methodology.
“Despite a
distinctly positive EBITDA, the net result was still clearly negative last year
due to high scheduled depreciation on investments,” the report noted,
citing this as a key weakness alongside the company’s dependence on volatile
capital market conditions.
Financial Performance Comparison Table
|
Metric |
Q1 2024 |
Q1 2025 |
Change |
SMC 2025E |
SMC 2026E |
|
Revenue (EUR m) |
15.3 |
16.4 |
+7.0% |
72.1 |
92.5 |
|
EBITDA (EUR m) |
2.0 |
1.0 |
-50.0% |
10.6 |
21.6 |
|
EBITDA Margin |
13.1% |
6.1% |
-7.0pp |
14.7% |
23.3% |
|
Marketing Spend Increase |
– |
+1.6 |
– |
– |
– |
Market Position and Risks
NAGA
operates a financial “SuperApp” combining social trading, stock
investing, cryptocurrency services, and neo-banking features. The platform
includes a physical VISA card with automatic crypto conversion and cashback
functionality.
SMC rated
the forecast risk as “slightly above average” at four points on a
six-point scale, citing the volatile capital market environment’s substantial
impact on NAGA’s business results. The firm also noted concerns about the
effectiveness of marketing measures and ambitious margin targets for 2025-2026.
The
company’s shares have traded between €0.30 and €1.14 over the past 12 months,
with current levels representing significant recovery from earlier lows.
Shares of
The NAGA Group AG (XETR: N4G) surged to their highest level in four months
after research firm SMC maintained its “BUY” rating while setting a
price target that implies 130% upside potential from current levels.
German Fintech NAGA Shares
Sees 130% Upside on Merger Synergies
The
Hamburg-based fintech company’s stock closed at €0.69 on May 27, with SMC
Research setting a price target of €1.60. Analysts describe cautious revenue and
margin estimates while maintaining confidence in the company’s growth
trajectory.
As a
result, N4G shares on the German stock exchange are up nearly 9% today
(Wednesday, May 28, 2025), testing the EUR 0.76 level — the highest since
January. If the stock reaches the EUR 1.60 target forecasted by SMC, it would
mark the highest value since July 2023.
NAGA
reported a 7% revenue increase to €16.4 million in the first quarter of 2025,
marking its return to growth after streamlining unprofitable operations in
2024. However, the company’s EBITDA fell to €1.0 million from €2.0 million
year-over-year, primarily due to increased marketing expenditure of €1.6
million compared to the same period last year.
SMC analyst
Holger Steffen noted the company’s improved operational metrics, including a
10.5% increase in daily trades per user to 2.3 and a 13.4% rise in copied
trades to 945,000. Customer lifetime value increased 14.2% to €3,300, though
customer acquisition costs rose 50.3% to €1,200 due to higher marketing spend.
“The
increased number of trades and, in particular, the higher volume of copied
trades were the main drivers behind the 7% growth in revenue,” Steffen
wrote in the research note.
Key Performance Indicators
|
KPI |
Q1 2024 |
Q1 2025 |
% Change |
Trend |
|
New Registered Users |
88,892 |
73,902 |
-16.8% |
↓ |
|
Newly Funded Accounts |
5,717 |
6,088 |
+6.5% |
↑ |
|
Daily Trades per Client |
2.09 |
2.31 |
+10.5% |
↑ |
|
Copy Trades |
833,446 |
945,047 |
+13.4% |
↑ |
|
Client Lifetime Value (EUR) |
2,880 |
3,290 |
+14.2% |
↑ |
|
Customer Acquisition Cost (EUR) |
801 |
1,204 |
+50.3% |
↓ |
|
Trading Volume (EUR m) |
64,723 |
47,296 |
-26.9% |
↓ |
NAGA Merger Synergies and
UK Expansion
The
analysis highlighted benefits from NAGA’s completed merger with Key Way Group,
parent company of CAPEX.com, which created a user base of approximately 1.5
million across more than 100 countries. The integration is expected to generate
annual cost savings of up to €9 million.
NAGA also
acquired Trade Capital UK for GBP 1.24 million in November 2024, providing
regulatory authorization to re-enter the British market after withdrawing in
2021. The company estimates the UK opportunity could generate€6.5 million in
revenue by 2026 with an EBITDA contribution of €2.5 million.
Financial Projections and
Targets
For 2025,
NAGA maintains guidance for revenue of €74 million, representing 19% growth,
with an EBITDA margin target of 17% compared to 13% in 2024. SMC’s estimates
are slightly more conservative, projecting revenue of €72.1 million and a 14.7%
EBITDA margin for the current year.
The
research firm’s model shows revenue reaching €225.1 million by 2031 with
operating margins of 30%. SMC uses a discount rate of 8.4% and applies a 20%
safety discount on target margins in its valuation methodology.
“Despite a
distinctly positive EBITDA, the net result was still clearly negative last year
due to high scheduled depreciation on investments,” the report noted,
citing this as a key weakness alongside the company’s dependence on volatile
capital market conditions.
Financial Performance Comparison Table
|
Metric |
Q1 2024 |
Q1 2025 |
Change |
SMC 2025E |
SMC 2026E |
|
Revenue (EUR m) |
15.3 |
16.4 |
+7.0% |
72.1 |
92.5 |
|
EBITDA (EUR m) |
2.0 |
1.0 |
-50.0% |
10.6 |
21.6 |
|
EBITDA Margin |
13.1% |
6.1% |
-7.0pp |
14.7% |
23.3% |
|
Marketing Spend Increase |
– |
+1.6 |
– |
– |
– |
Market Position and Risks
NAGA
operates a financial “SuperApp” combining social trading, stock
investing, cryptocurrency services, and neo-banking features. The platform
includes a physical VISA card with automatic crypto conversion and cashback
functionality.
SMC rated
the forecast risk as “slightly above average” at four points on a
six-point scale, citing the volatile capital market environment’s substantial
impact on NAGA’s business results. The firm also noted concerns about the
effectiveness of marketing measures and ambitious margin targets for 2025-2026.
The
company’s shares have traded between €0.30 and €1.14 over the past 12 months,
with current levels representing significant recovery from earlier lows.
This post is originally published on FINANCEMAGNATES.
