Economic calendar for the week 30.09.2024 – 06.10.2024

The S&P500 and Dow Jones stock indices are reaching new highs, while the US dollar continues to face pressure after the US Fed’s decision to cut interest rates by 0.50% at its mid-month meeting, advocating for further policy easing if warranted.

In the upcoming week, 30.09.2024 – 06.10.2024, market participants will focus on the publication of macro data on China, the UK, Germany, Canada, and the US. The US labor market data for September is expected to draw significant attention.

Note: During the coming week, new events may be added to the calendar, and / or some scheduled events may be cancelled. GMT time

The article covers the following subjects:

Key facts

• Monday: German preliminary CPI, US Fed Chair Powell’s speech.
• Tuesday: Eurozone preliminary CPI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI.
• Wednesday: US ADP report.
• Thursday: US ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index.
• Friday: US
• Key event of the week: US Department of Labor report.

Monday, September 30

01:30 – CNY: China’s Manufacturing and Services PMI by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP)

This indicator is an essential gauge of the overall Chinese economy. An indicator reading above 50 is positive for the the yuan, while a value below 50 is negative for the currency.

Previous values: 49.1, 49.4, 49.5, 50.4, 50.8, 49.2, 49.0, 49.5, 50.2, 49.3, 49.0, 48.8, 49.2, 51.9, 52.6, 50.1 in January. The relative rise in the index above 50 strengthens the yuan. Data above 50 indicates increased economic activity, positively affecting the national currency. Conversely, if the index value is below 50, the yuan will face pressure and probably decline.

Likewise, the services sector PMI assesses the state of the services sector in the Chinese economy. An indicator result above 50 is seen as positive for the yuan. Previous values: 50.3, 50.2, 50.5, 51.2, 53.0, 50.7, 50.4, 50.6, 51.7, 51.5, 53.2, 54.5, 56.4, 58.2, 56.3, 54.4 in January. Despite the relative decline, the indicator is still above the 50 value, likely influencing the yuan positively. Conversely, the indicator below 50 suggests that the yuan will face pressure and probably decline.

01:45 – CNY: Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI

The Caixin Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a leading indicator of China’s manufacturing sector. As the world’s second-largest economy, China’s release of significant macroeconomic data may strongly influence the financial market.

Previous values: 50.4, 49.8, 51.8, 51.7, 51.4, 51.1, 50.9, 50.8, 50.8, 50.7, 49.5, 50.6, 51.0, 49.2, 50.5, 50.9, 49.5, 50.0, 51.6, 49.2 in January 2023.

A decline in the indicator value and reading below 50 may negatively affect the renminbi, as well as commodity currencies such as the New Zealand and Australian dollar. Data that exceeds forecasted or previous values will have a positive impact on these currencies.

01:45 – CNY: Caixin China General Services PMI

The Caixin Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a leading indicator of China’s services sector. Since China’s economy is the second largest in the world, the release of its significant macroeconomic indicators can profoundly influence the overall financial market.

Previous values: 51.3, 52.1, 51.2, 54.0, 52.5, 52.7, 52.5, 52.7 in January 2024, 52.9, 51.5, 50.4, 50.2, 51.8, 54.1, 53.9, 57.1, 56.4, 57.8, 55.0, 52.9 in January 2023.

Although an index value above 50 indicates growth, a relative decline in the indicator may adversely affect the yuan. Since China is the most important trade and economic partner of Australia and New Zealand, a deterioration in Chinese macro data may negatively impact the Australian and New Zealand dollars. Conversely, an increase in Chinese macro figures is usually positive for these currencies.

06:00 – EUR: German Retail Sales

Retail sales is the main indicator of consumer spending in Germany. A high indicator reading boosts the euro, while a low one weakens the currency.

Previous values: -1.2% (-0.6% YoY), +2.6% (-1.9% YoY), -1.5% (+2.2% YoY), -0.3% (-1.2% YoY) in January 2024.

The data suggests that the German economy’s recovery has been uneven, with some months experiencing a slowdown. Indicator readings higher than forecasted and/or previous values are likely positive for the euro in the short term.

06:00 – GBP: UK GDP for Q2 2024 (Final Estimate)

GDP is viewed as an indicator of the UK economy’s condition. The growing GDP indicator is considered positive for the British pound. The UK GDP rate was one of the highest in the world until 2016 when the Brexit referendum occurred. Subsequently, its growth decelerated, and with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the UK GDP rate dropped.

Previous GDP values: +0.7% in Q1 2024, -0.3% in Q4, -0.1% in Q3, 0% in Q2, +0.2% in Q1 2023, +0.1% in Q4 2022, -0.1% in Q3, +0.1% in Q2, +0.5% in Q1 2022, +1.5% in Q4 2022.

The key factors that may force the Bank of England to keep the rate low include weak GDP, slow labor market growth, and low consumer spending. Should the GDP data fall significantly below previous values, the pound will face downward pressure. Conversely, high GDP readings will bolster the currency.

The preliminary estimate stood at +0.6%.

12:00 – EUR: German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (Preliminary Estimate)

The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is published by the European Statistics and is calculated using a methodology agreed upon by all EU countries. The HICP is an indicator for measuring inflation and is used by the European Central Bank to assess price stability. A positive index result strengthens the euro, while a negative one weakens it.

Previous values YoY: +2.0, +2.6%, +2.5%, +2.8%, +2.4%, +2.3%, +2.7%, +3.1% in January 2024, +3.8% in December, +2.3% in November, +3.0% in October, +4.3% in September, +6.4% in August, +6.5% in July, +6.8% in June, +6.3% in May, +7.6% in April, +7.8% in March, +9.3% in February, +9, 2% in January, +9.6% in December, +11.3% in November, +11.6% in October, +10.9% in September, +8.8% in August, +8.5% in July, +8.2% in June, +8.7% in May, +7.8% in April, +7.6% in March, +5.5% in February, +5.1% in January 2022.

The data suggests that German inflation continues to decelerate, albeit at a slower pace than expected. This situation is putting pressure on the European Central Bank to ease its monetary policy. Figures lower than the previous reading will likely affect the euro negatively. Conversely, the resumption of inflation growth may provoke the appreciation of the euro. The growth of the indicator values is a positive factor for the currency.

If the September data turns out to be better than previous values, the euro may strengthen in the short term.

17:00 – USD: US Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Speech to Congress

Powell’s commentaries may affect short-term and long-term trading in the US dollar. The Fed’s more aggressive approach to monetary policy is a positive factor that would strengthen the US dollar, while a more cautious position is negative for the greenback.

If Jerome Powell makes unexpected statements, volatility in financial market trading may increase. If he suggests the necessity for a monetary policy easing, the US dollar will weaken and the US stock markets will surge.

Market participants will scrutinize his speech to detect signals regarding the US Fed’s upcoming decisions.

23:50 – JPY: Tankan Large Manufacturing Index for Q3

The index reflects general business conditions for Japan’s large manufacturing companies and estimates the current state of Japan’s export-oriented economy, which is heavily dependent on the industrial sector.

The index value above 0, the midline, is positive for the Japanese yen, while a reading below 0 is negative.

Previous quarterly values: 13, 11, 13, 9, 5, 1 in Q1 2023. A relative rise in the indicator will bolster the yen, while a relative decline, especially a slide into negative territory, will exert pressure on the currency.

Tuesday, October 01

00:30 – AUD: Retail Sales

The Retail Sales Index, published monthly by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, measures the total retail sales volume. The index is often considered an indicator of consumer confidence and spending, reflecting also the near-term state of the retail sector. In advanced economies, domestic consumption plays a significant role in driving GDP growth.

Therefore, deterioration of the indicator values may reveal problems with the country’s GDP growth in the future. This is a negative factor for the national currency, as the economic slowdown may force the national central bank to ease monetary policy for businesses by lowering interest rates in particular.

A surge in the index readings is usually positive for the Australian dollar.

Previous index value: 0% in July, +0.5%, +0.6%, +0.1% -0.4%, +0.2% +1.1%, -2.1%, +1.6%, -0.4%, +0.9%, +0.3%, +0.5%, -0.8%, +0.8%, 0%, +0.4%, +0.2%, +1.9%, -3.9%, +1.7%, +0.4%, +0.6%, +0.6%, +1.3%, +0.2% in prior months. If the data is weaker than the previous figures, the Australian dollar may experience a short-term decline. Conversely, if the data surpasses the previous values, the currency will likely strengthen.

09:00 – EUR: Consumer Price Index. Core Consumer Price Index (Preliminary Release)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), published by Eurostat, measures the price change of a selected basket of goods and services over a given period. The CPI is a key indicator for evaluating inflation and consumer preferences. A positive indicator result strengthens the euro, while a negative one weakens it.

Previous values YOY: +2.2%, +2.6%, +2.5%, +2.6%, +2.4%, +2.4%, +2.6%, +2.8% in January 2024, +2.9%, +2.4%, +2.9%, +4.3%, +5.2%, +5.3%, +5.5%, +6.1%, +6.1%, +7.0%, +6.9%, +8,5%, +8.6% in January 2023, +9.2%, +10.1%, +10.6%, +9.9%, +9.1%, +8.9%, +8.6%, +8.1%, +7.4%, +7.4%, +5.9%, +5.1% in January 2022.

If the data is worse than the forecasted value, the euro may face a short-term but sharp decline. Conversely, if the data surpasses the forecast and/or the previous value, it could strengthen the euro in the short term. The ECB’s consumer inflation target is just below 2.0%, and the reading suggests that inflation in the eurozone is still high, although the pace of increase is slowing down.

The Core Consumer Price Index (Core CPI) determines the price change of a selected basket of goods and services over a given period and is a key indicator for assessing inflation and consumer preference. Food and energy are excluded from this indicator in order to provide a more accurate assessment. A high result strengthens the euro, while a low one weakens it.

Previous values YOY: +2.8, +2.9%, +2.9%, +2.9%, +2.7%, +2.9%, +3.1%, +3.3% in January 2024, +3.4%, +3.6% +4.2%, +4.5%, +5.3%, +5.5%, +5.5%, +5.3%, +5.3%, +5.6%, +5.7%, +5.6%, +5.3%, +5.2%, +5.0%, +5.0%, +4.8%, +4.3%, +4.0%, +3.7%, +3.8%, +3.5%, +3.0%, +2.7%, +2.3% in January 2022.

If the September 2024 index figures are weaker than the previous or forecasted value, the euro may be negatively affected. If the data turns out to be better than the forecasted or previous value, the currency will likely grow.

According to recently reported data, the eurozone’s inflation rate is still high, above the ECB’s target of 2.0%. As a result, the ECB is inclined to maintain high interest rates, which is favorable for the euro in normal economic conditions.

14:00 – USD: US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index

The US PMI published by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) is an important measure of the US economy. When the index surpasses 50, it bolsters the US dollar, whereas readings below 50 have a detrimental effect on the greenback.

Previous values: 47.2, 46.8, 48.5, 48.7, 49.2, 50.3, 47.8, 49.1 in January 2024, 47.4 in December, 46.7 in November, 46.7 in October, 49.0 in September, 47.6 in August, 46.4 in July, 46.0 in June, 46.9 in May, 47.1 in April, 46.3 in March, 47.7 in February, 47.4 in January 2023.

The index reading is again below the 50 level, indicating a slowdown in this sector of the US economy. The growth of index values supports the dollar. Conversely, if the index reading falls below the forecasted values or below 50, the US dollar may sharply depreciate in the short term.

Wednesday, October 02

12:15 – USD: ADP Private Sector Employment Report

The ADP report on private sector employment significantly impacts the market and the US dollar. An increase in this indicator value positively affects the greenback. The number of workers in the US private sector is expected to increase again in September after rising by 99k in August, 111k in July, 155k in June, 157k in May, 188k in April, 208k in March, 155k in February, 111k in January 2024, 158k in December, 104k in November, 111k in October, 137k in September, 135k in August, 307k in July, 543k in June, 206k in May, 293k in April, 103k in March, 275k in February, 131k in January 2023.

The growth of the index values may positively affect the US dollar while law index readings adversely. A negative market reaction and a potential decline in the dollar may occur if the data turns out to be worse than forecasted.

The ADP report is not directly correlated with the official data of the US Department of Labor, which is due on Friday. However, the ADP report often serves as a forerunner of the department’s data and significantly influences the market.

Thursday, October 03

00:30 – AUD: Balance of Trade

Balance of Trade is an indicator that measures the ratio between exports and imports. An increase in Australian exports leads to a larger trade surplus, positively affecting the Australian dollar. Previous values (in billion Australian dollars): 6.009 in July, 5.425 in June, 5.052 in May, 6.678 in April, 4.841 in March, 6.707 in February, 9.873 in January 2024.

A decrease in the trade surplus could negatively affect the Australian dollar, while an increase in the indicator figure may bolster the currency.

06:30 – CHF: Consumer Price Index

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) reflects the retail price trends for a group of goods and services comprising the consumer basket. The CPI is a key gauge of inflation. Additionally, the index has a significant impact on the value of the Swiss franc.

In August, consumer inflation rose +1.1% YoY and showed zero MoM change after -0.2% (+1.3% YoY) in July, 0% (+1.3% YoY) in June, +0.3% (+1.4% YoY) in May, +0.3% (+1.4% YoY) in April, 0% (+1.2% YoY) in February, +0.2% (+1.3% YoY) January 2024, +1.7% in December 2023, +1.4% in November, and +1.7% YoY in October.

An index reading below the forecasted or previous value may weaken the Swiss franc, as low inflation will force the Swiss Central Bank to ease its monetary policy. Conversely, a high reading would be positive for the Swiss franc.

14:00 – USD: US ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index

The PMI assesses the state of the US services sector, accounting for about 80% of US GDP. The share of final goods production is about 20% of GDP, including 1% for agriculture and 18% for industrial production. Therefore, the publication of the services sector data significantly impacts the US dollar. An indicator reading above 50 is positive for the currency.

Previous values: 51.5 in August, 51.4 in July, 48.8 in June, 53.8 in May, 49.4 in April, 51.4 in March, 52.6 in February, 53.4 in January 2024, 50.5 in December, 52.5 in November, 51.9 in October, 53.4 in September, 54.5 in August, 52.7 in July, 53.9 in June, 50.3 in May, 51, 9 in April, 51.2 in March, 55.1 in February, 55.2 in January 2023, 49.6 in December, 56.5 in November, 54.4 in October, 56.9 in August, 56.7 in July, 55.3 in June, 55.9 in May, 57.1 in April, 58.3 in March, 56.5 in February, 59.9 in January 2022.

The growth of index values will favorably affect the US dollar. However, a relative decline in the index values and readings below 50 may negatively affect the US dollar in the short term.

Friday, October 04

12:30 – CAD: Canada Unemployment Rate

Statistics Canada will release the country’s August labor market data. Since 2020, unemployment has risen in Canada. Massive business closures due to the coronavirus and layoffs have also contributed to the unemployment rate, increasing from the usual 5.6%–5.7% to 7.8% in March and 13.7% in May 2020.

In August 2024, unemployment stood at 6.6% against 6.4% in July and June, 6.2% in May, 6.1% in April and March, 5.8% in February, 5.7% in January 2024, 5.8% in December and November 2023, 5.7% in October, 5.5% in September, August, and July, 5.4% in June, 5.2% in May, 5.0% in April, March, February, January, December, 5.1% in November, 5.2% in October and September, 5.4% in August, 4.9% in July and June, 5.1% in May, 5.2% in April, 5.3% in March, 5.5% in February, 6.5% in January 2022.

If the unemployment rate continues to rise, the Canadian dollar will depreciate. If the data exceeds the previous value, the Canadian dollar will strengthen. A decrease in the unemployment rate is a positive factor for the Canadian dollar, while an increase is a negative factor..

12:30 – USD: Average Hourly Earnings. Private Nonfarm Payrolls. Unemployment Rate

The most significant US labor market indicators for September.

Previous values: +0.4% in August, +0.2% in July, +0.3% in June, +0.4% in May, +0.2% in April, +0.3% in March, +0.1% in February, +0.6% in January 2024, +0.4% in December and November 2023, +0.2% in October, September, and August, +0.4% in July and June, +0.3% in May, +0.5% in April, +0.3% in March, +0.2% in February, +0.3% in January 2023 / +114,000 in July, +179,000 in June, 216,000 in May, +108,000 in April, +310,000 in March, +236,000 in February, +256,000 in January 2024, +290,000 in December 2023, +182,000 in November, +165,000 in October, +246,000 in September, +210,000 in August 2023, +210,000 in August 2023 / 4.3% in July, 4.1% in June, 4.0% in May, 3.9% in April, 3.8% in March, 3.9% in February, 3.7% in January 2024, December and November 2023, 3.9% in October, 3.8% in September and August, 3.5% in July, 3.6% in June, 3.7% in May, 3.4% in April, 3.5% in March, 3.6% in February, 3.4% in January 2023.

Overall, the values are positive. Nevertheless, it is often difficult to predict the market’s reaction to the data release, given that many previous figures can be revised. This task becomes even more challenging now due to the contradictory economic situation in the US and many other large economies with the looming risk of recession alongside persistently high inflation.

Regardless, the release of the US labor market data is anticipated to prompt increased volatility not just in the US dollar but also in the entire financial market. Most risk-averse investors will probably prefer to stay out of the market during this period.

Price chart of EURUSD in real time mode

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