The dollar appears to be ending the first month of the 2nd half of the year and the 3rd quarter with losses, despite the attempts of buyers to revive its upward momentum.
The central focus of the coming week will, of course, be on the Fed meeting. Market participants do not expect any action from its leaders, who have insisted that they need to wait for more convincing signals that inflation will fall towards the target range of 2%.
It is likely that at this meeting the Fed interest rate will still remain at the same level. Investors are largely awaiting the first interest rate cut at the September meeting of the US Central Bank and will carefully study accompanying statements to get signals from its leaders about the immediate prospects for monetary policy.
The publication of the Fed decision is scheduled for July 31. It is noteworthy that a meeting of the Bank of Japan will take place on the same day. If the Japanese Central Bank surprises the markets with its decision and raises the interest rate, in anticipation of an easing of the Fed’s monetary policy, this could literally create a storm in the market and bring down the USD/JPY pair.
In addition, the most important events of the week will also be the Bank of England meeting on Thursday and the publication on Friday of the US Department of Labor report with data for July.
Note: During the coming week, new events may be added to the calendar and / or some scheduled events may be cancelled. GMT time
The article covers the following subjects:
Key facts
- Monday: No important macro statistics is expected other than retail sales data from Germany.
- Tuesday: Investors will be following a block of data from the Eurozone.
- Wednesday: An extremely volatile trading day is expected due to the publication of the most important macro statistics from the Eurozone and the United States, as well as the publication of decisions by the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve on interest rates.
- Thursday: Bank of England’s meeting and the US manufacturing PMI.
- Friday: US Department of Labor Monthly Report.
- Central events of the week: Meetings of the Central Banks of Japan, the US, the UK, as well as a report from the US Department of Labor with data for July.
Monday, July 29
06:00 – EUR: Retail Sales
Retail sales are the main indicator of consumer spending in Germany showing changes in the volume of sales in the retail sector. A high result strengthens the euro, and vice versa, a low result weakens it.
Previous values: -1.2% (-0.6% annualized), +2.6% (-1.9% annualized), -1.5% (+2.2% annualized) , -0.3% (-1.2% annualized) in January 2024, -0.2% (-3.0% annualized) in December 2023.
The data shows an uneven recovery and, in some months, a slowdown in this sector of the German economy. Data better than the forecast and/or the previous value will likely have a positive impact on the euro, but in the short term.
Tuesday, July 30
01:30 – AUD: Retail Sales Index
Retail Sales Index is published monthly by the Australian Bureau of Statistics and measures overall retail sales. The index is often considered an indicator of consumer confidence and consumer spending, also reflecting the health of the retail sector in the near term. Domestic consumption, in turn, is one of the main components of GDP growth in countries with developed economies.
Therefore, a deterioration in this indicator may also indicate problems with the country’s GDP growth in the future. And this, in turn, is a negative factor for the national currency, since a slowdown in the economy may force the national central bank to soften monetary conditions for business, in particular, cut interest rates.
The index growth is usually a positive factor for the AUD.
Previous index value (for May) +0.6% (after +0.1%, -0.4%, +0.3% +1.1%, -2.7%, +2.0%, – 0.4%, +0.9%, +0.3%, +0.5%, -0.8%, +0.8%, 0%, +0.4%, +0.2%, +1.9%, -3.9%, +1.7%, +0.4%, +0.6%, +0.6%, +1.3%, +0.2% in previous months ). If the data turns out to be weaker than the previous value, the AUD may sharply decline in the short term; but if it’s above the previous values, the AUD is likely to strengthen.
08:00 – EUR: German GDP for the 2nd Quarter (Preliminary Estimate)
GDP data is one of the key indicators (along with data on the labor market and inflation) for the country’s Central Bank in terms of its monetary policy. A strong result strengthens the national currency (in this case, the euro); a weak GDP report has a negative impact on the euro. In the previous 1st quarter of 2024, GDP grew by +0.2%, but decreased by -0.9% yoy, after declining by -0.3% (-0.4% yoy) in the 1st quarter 2023, by -0.1% (-0.8% yoy) in the 3rd quarter of 2023.
If data points to a contraction in GDP in the 2nd quarter of 2024, the euro will come under pressure. Positive GDP data will support it.
09:00 – EUR: Eurozone GDP for the 2nd Quarter (Preliminary Estimate)
GDP is considered an indicator of the overall health of the economy. A rising trend of the GDP indicator is considered positive for the EUR; a weak result weakens the EUR.
Recently, macro data from the Eurozone have been indicating a gradual recovery in the growth rate of the European economy after a sharp decline at the beginning of 2020.
Previous values: +0.3% (+0.4% annualized) in the 1st quarter of 2024, 0% (+0.1% annualized) in the 4th quarter of 2023, -0.1 % (0% annualized) in the 3rd quarter, +0.1% (+0.5% annualized) in the 2nd quarter, -0.1% (+1.0% annualized) in the 1st quarter of 2023, 0% (+1.9% annualized) in the 4th quarter of 2022, growth of +0.7% (+4.0% annualized) in the 3rd quarter , +0.8% (+4.1% annualized) in the 2nd quarter of 2022, +0.6% (+5.4% annualized in the 1st quarter, +0.3% ( +4.6% annualized) in the 4th quarter, +2.2% (+3.9% annualized) in the 3rd quarter, +2.2% (+14.3% annualized) ) in the 2nd quarter and a fall of -0.3% (-1.3% annualized) in the 1st quarter of 2021.
If the data turns out to be weaker than the forecast and/or previous values, the euro may decline. Data better than forecast may strengthen the euro in the short term, although the European economy is still far from fully recovering even to pre-crisis levels.
12:00 – EUR: Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices in Germany (Preliminary Estimate)
Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is published by the EU Statistics Office and is calculated based on a statistical method agreed between all EU countries. It is an indicator for assessing inflation and is used by the Governing Council of the ECB to assess the level of price stability. A positive result strengthens the EUR, a negative result weakens it.
Previous indicator values: +2.2%, +2.8%, +2.4%, +2.3%, +2.7%, +3.1% in January 2024, +3.8% in December, +2.3% in November, +3.0% in October, +4.3% in September, +6.4% in August, +6.5% in July, +6.8% in June, +6.3% in May, +7.6% in April, +7.8% in March, +9.3% in February, +9.2% in January, +9.6% in December, +11 .3% in November, +11.6% in October, +10.9% in September, +8.8% in August, +8.5% in July, +8.2% in June, +8.7 % in May, +7.8% in April, +7.6% in March, +5.5% in February, +5.1% in January 2022 (annualized).
The data suggests inflation in Germany continues to slow down, albeit at a slower-than-expected pace, which in turn puts pressure on the ECB to ease its monetary policy. Data weaker than the previous value will likely have a negative impact on the euro. And, conversely, the resumption of inflation growth may provoke a strengthening of the euro. The growth of the indicator is a positive factor for the euro.
If data for June turns out to be better than previous values, the euro may strengthen in the short term.
14:00 – USD: Consumer Confidence Level
Conference Board survey report of nearly 3,000 US households asks respondents to assess current and future economic conditions, as well as the overall economic situation in the United States. American consumers’ confidence in the country’s economic development and the stability of their economic situation is a key indicator of consumer spending, which plays an important role in overall economic activity. A high level of consumer confidence indicates economic growth, while a low level indicates stagnation.
Previous indicator values: 100.4, 102.0, 97.0, 104.7, 106.7, 114.8, 110.7, 102.0, 102.6, 103.0, 106.1, 117, 0, 109.7, 102.3, 101.3, 104.2.
An increase in the indicator will support the dollar exchange rate, while a decrease in the value will weaken it.
Wednesday, July 31
01:30 – AUD: RBA Trimmed Mean Core Inflation Index (2nd Quarter). Consumer Price Index (2nd Quarter)
This indicator is published by the RBA and the Australian Bureau of Statistics. It reflects the dynamics of retail prices of goods and services included in the consumer basket. The simple trimmed mean method takes into account the weighted average kernel, the central 70% of the index components. Previous index values: +1.0% (+4.0% in annual terms) in the 1st quarter of 2024, +0.8% (+4.2% in annual terms) in the 4th quarter of 2023, +1.2% (+5.5% in annual terms) in the 3rd quarter, +1.0% (+5.9% in annual terms) in the 2nd quarter, +1.2% (+6 .6% in annual terms) in the 1st quarter of 2023, +1.7% (+6.9% in annual terms) in the 4th quarter of 2022, +1.8% (+6.1% in annual terms) in the 3rd quarter, +1.5% (+4.9% in annual terms) in the 2nd quarter of 2022, +1.4% (+3.7% in annual terms) in 1- 1st quarter 2022, +1.0% (+2.6% in annual terms) in the 4th quarter, +0.7% (+2.1% in annual terms) in the 3rd quarter, +0, 5% (+1.6% in annual terms) in the 2nd quarter, +0.3% (+1.1% in annual terms) in the 1st quarter of 2021.
Data indicate inflationary pressures are still strong. If the indicator value turns out to be worse than forecast, this will likely have a negative impact on the AUD. An increase in the indicator above the forecast should have a positive impact on the AUD in the short term.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) published by the RBA and the Australian Bureau of Statistics measures the dynamics of retail prices of goods and services in Australia. CPI is the most significant indicator of inflation and changes in consumer preferences. A high value of the indicator is a positive factor for the AUD, and a low value is a negative factor. Previous values of the indicator: +1.0% (+3.6% in annual terms) in the 1st quarter of 2024, +0.6% (+3.4% in annual terms) in the 4th quarter of 2023, +1.2% (+5.4% in annual terms) in the 3rd quarter, +0.8% (+6.0% in annual terms) in the 2nd quarter, +1.4% (+7 .0% in annual terms) in the 1st quarter of 2023, +1.9% (+7.8% in annual terms) in the 4th quarter of 2022, +1.8% (+7.3% in in annual terms) in the 3rd quarter, +1.8% (+6.1% in annual terms) in the 2nd quarter of 2022, +2.1% (+5.1% in annual terms) in 1- 1st quarter 2022, +1.3% (+3.5% in annual terms) in the 4th quarter, +0.8% (+3.0% in annual terms) in the 3rd quarter, +0, 8% (+3.8% in annual terms) in the 2nd quarter, +0.6% (+1.1% in annual terms) in the 1st quarter of 2021.
The Australian central bank’s CPI inflation target is in the range of 2% – 3%. According to the minutes of one of the RBA’s most recent meetings, bringing inflation back to target may “require further interest rate increases over time” and “further steps will need to be taken in the coming months to normalize monetary conditions in Australia.”
It is worth noting that earlier the RBA minutes stated that “the Central Bank will not raise rates until it reaches the target CPI inflation level of 2-3% on a sustainable basis. This will not happen until 2024.” Now the RBA, like most of the world’s other major central banks, faces the challenge of still high inflation.
The expected positive value is likely to support the AUD. If the indicator comes out with a value worse than the forecast, this will negatively affect the AUD in the short term.
01:30 – CNY: Manufacturing and Services PMI from the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFPL)
This is an important indicator of the state of the Chinese economy as a whole. A result above 50 is considered as positive and strengthens the CNY, while a result below 50 is negative for the yuan.
Previous values: 49.5, 50.4, 50.8, 49.2, 49.0, 49.5, 50.2, 49.3, 49.0, 48.8, 49.2, 51.9 , 52.6, 50.1 in January. The relative growth of the index and the value of 50 should have a positive effect on the CNY. Data above 50 indicates an increase in activity, which has a positive effect on the quotes of the national currency. Otherwise, and if the indicator is below 50, the yuan will be under pressure and will likely decline.
A similar PMI of business activity in the services sector assesses the state of the services sector in the Chinese economy. A result above 50 is considered positive and strengthens the yuan. Previous values: 50.5, 51.2, 53.0, 50.7, 50.4, 50.6, 51.7, 51.5, 53.2, 54.5, 56.4, 58.2 , 56.3, 54.4 in January. Despite the relative decline, the indicator is still above 50, which is likely to have a positive impact on the yuan quotes. Otherwise, and if the indicator is below 50, the yuan will be under pressure and will probably decline.
After 03:00 (exact time not announced) – JPY: Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision. Bank of Japan Press Conference and Monetary Policy Statement
The Bank of Japan will decide on the interest rate. Currently the prime rate in Japan is 0%. Most likely, it will remain at the same level. If the rate is cut and returns to negative territory, such a decision will cause a sharp decline in the yen in the foreign exchange market and growth in the Japanese stock market. In any case, during this period of time a jump in volatility in yen quotes and in the Asian financial market is expected.
Since February 2016, the Bank of Japan has kept its deposit rate at -0.1% and its 10-year bond yield target at around 0%.
However, at a meeting on March 19, the BOJ board members decided to raise interest rates by 10 basis points, from -0.1% to 0%, for the first time since 2007, ending a period of negative interest rates that began in 2016. At the same time, the target for long-term JGBs (YCC) was removed, although the Bank of Japan still intends to buy the same number of JGBs per month as before, just without a clear target. On the other hand, the bank will stop buying ETFs and REITs, and purchases of commercial paper and corporate bonds will be phased out and completely stopped after 12 months.
The yen reacted negatively to this decision. Economists say a symbolic end to negative interest rates is unlikely to give it much of a boost to growth. Only if the Bank of Japan hints at further rate hikes, which would indicate a real rate hike cycle, will the yen receive significant support, in their opinion.
During the press conference, head of the Bank of Japan Kazuo Ueda will comment on the bank’s monetary policy. The Bank of Japan continues to maintain an ultra-loose monetary policy. As former head of the Japanese Central Bank Haruhiko Kuroda has repeatedly stated, “it is appropriate for Japan to patiently continue the current loose monetary policy.” Markets usually react noticeably to the speeches of the head of the Bank of Japan. He will probably touch on the topic of monetary policy during his speech, which will cause increased volatility not only in trading in the yen, but throughout the Asian and global financial markets.
After 06:00 (exact time not announced) – JPY: Press Conference of the Bank of Japan
During the press conference, head of the Bank of Japan Kazuo Ueda, who replaced Haruhiko Kuroda in this post in April 2023, will comment on the bank’s monetary policy. Despite the bank’s earlier measures to stimulate the Japanese economy, inflation remains low, production and consumption are falling, which has a negative impact on export-oriented Japanese manufacturers. Markets usually react noticeably to the speeches of the head of the Japanese Central Bank. If he brings up monetary policy during his speech, volatility will increase not only in yen trading, but throughout Asian and global financial markets.
09:00 – EUR: Consumer Price Index. Core Consumer Price Index (Preliminary Release)
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is published by Eurostat and measures changes in the prices of a selected basket of goods and services over a given period. The index is a key indicator for assessing inflation and changes in consumer preferences. A positive result strengthens the EUR, a negative result weakens it.
Previous values (annualized): +2.5%, +2.6%, +2.4%, +2.4%, +2.6%, +2.8% (in January 2024), +2.9%, +2.4%, +2.9%, +4.3%, +5.2%, +5.3%, +5.5%, +6.1%, +6 .1%, +7.0%, +6.9%, +8.5%, +8.6% (in January 2023), +9.2%, +10.1%, +10.6 %, +9.9%, +9.1%, +8.9%, +8.6%, +8.1%, +7.4%, +7.4%, +5.9%, +5.1% (in January 2022).
If the data turns out to be worse than forecast, the euro may decline sharply in the short term. Data better than the forecast and/or the previous value may strengthen the euro in the short term. Recall that the ECB’s consumer inflation target is just below 2.0%, and data indicate that inflation in the Eurozone is still high, although there is also a slowing down trend.
Core Consumer Price Index (Core CPI) determines the change in prices of a selected basket of goods and services for a given period and is a key indicator for assessing inflation and changes in consumer preferences. Food and energy are excluded from this indicator to provide a more accurate estimate. A high result strengthens the EUR, while a low result weakens it.
Previous values (annualized): +2.9%, +2.9%, +2.7%, +2.9%, +3.1%, +3.3% (in January 2024), +3.4%, +3.6% +4.2%, +4.5%, +5.3%, +5.5%, +5.5%, +5.3%, +5, 3%, +5.6%, +5.7%, +5.6%, +5.3%, +5.2%, +5.0%, +5.0%, +4.8% , +4.3%, +4.0%, +3.7%, +3.8%, +3.5%, +3.0%, +2.7%, +2.3% (in January 2022).
If data for July 2024 turn out to be weaker than the previous value or forecast, this could have a negative impact on the euro. If the data turn out to be better than the forecast or the previous value, the euro will most likely react with an increase in quotations.
Judging by the recently presented data, inflation in the Eurozone accelerated again in the reporting month, and this is a positive (in normal economic conditions) factor for the euro.
12:15 – USD: ADP National Employment Report
Typically, the ADP report on private sector employment has a strong impact on the market and dollar quotes. An increase in the value of this indicator has a positive effect on the dollar. Another increase in the number of employees in the US private sector is expected in July after an increase of 150 thousand in June, 157 thousand in May, 188 thousand in April, 208 thousand in March, 155 thousand in February, 111 thousand (in January 2024), 158 thousand in December, 104 thousand in November, 111 thousand in October, 137 thousand in September, 135 thousand in August, 307 thousand in July, 543 thousand in June, 206 thousand in May, 293 thousand in April, 103 thousand in March, 275 thousand in February, 131,000 (in January 2023).
A relative increase in the indicator can have a positive impact on dollar quotes, while a relative decrease in the indicator can have a negative impact. The market reaction may be negative, and the dollar may decline if the data turns out to be worse than forecast.
Although the ADP report does not have a direct correlation with the official data of the US Department of Labor on the labor market, which will be published on Friday, the ADP report is often its harbinger, having a noticeable impact on the market.
18:00 – USD: The Fed’s Interest Rate Decision. The Fed’s Monetary Policy Statement. Summary of Economic Projections of the Federal Open Market Committee
At several meetings held in the first half of 2024, the Fed leaders kept monetary policy parameters unchanged, and the key interest rate remained at 5.50%.
Now market participants are waiting for the US central bank to begin a cycle of easing monetary policy. Economists’ main forecasts are that the Fed will begin cutting interest rates in the second half of 2024.
However, there is also the possibility of another rate hike this year if inflation starts to rise again, as the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has repeatedly warned about.
For now, the rate is widely expected to remain unchanged at 5.50% at this meeting.
During the publication of the rate decision, volatility may rise sharply throughout the financial market, primarily in the American stock market and in dollar quotes, especially if the rate decision differs from the forecast or unexpected statements are made by the Fed leaders.
Powell’s comments could impact both short- and long-term USD trading. A more hawkish stance on Fed monetary policy is seen as positive and strengthens the US dollar, while a more cautious stance is seen as negative for the USD. Investors want to hear Powell’s thoughts on the Fed’s future plans for this year and next.
18:30 – USD: FOMC (United States Federal Open Market Committee) Press Conference
The press conference of the US Federal Open Market Committee lasts about an hour. The first part reads the ruling, followed by a series of questions and answers that could increase market volatility. Any unexpected statements by Powell on the Fed’s monetary policy will cause increased volatility in dollar quotes and the American stock market.
Thursday, August 1
01:30 – AUD: Balance of Trade
The indicator evaluates the relationship between the volumes of exports and imports. Increased exports from Australia lead to a larger trade surplus, which has a positive impact on the AUD. Previous values (AUD billion): June 5.773, May 6.548, April 5.024, March 7.280, February 11.027, January 10.959, December 11.437, October 7.129, September 6.184, September 10.161 for August), 7.324 billion Australian dollars (for July), 10.268 billion Australian dollars (for June), 10.497 billion Australian dollars (for May), 10.454 billion Australian dollars (for April), 14.974 billion Australian dollars (for March), 14.129 billion Australian dollars (for February), 10.963 billion Australian dollars (for January 2023). A decline in the trade surplus could have a negative impact on the Australian dollar. Conversely, an increase in the trade surplus is a positive factor for the AUD.
01:45 – CNY: Caixin Manufacturing PMI
Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a leading indicator of the health of China’s manufacturing sector. China’s economy is the second largest in the world, so the release of important macroeconomic indicators from China can have a strong impact on the entire financial market.
Previous values: 51.8, 51.7, 51.4, 51.1, 50.9, 50.8, 50.8, 50.7, 49.5, 50.6, 51.0, 49.2 , 50.5, 50.9, 49.5, 50.0, 51.6, 49.2 (in January 2023).
A relative decrease in the value of the indicator and a deepening into the zone below 50 may negatively affect the yuan quotes, as well as the quotes of such commodity currencies as the New Zealand and Australian dollars; data better than the forecast/previous values will have a positive impact on them.
11:00 – GBP: Bank of England’s Interest Rate Decision. Minutes of the Meeting of the Bank of England. Planned Volume of Asset Purchases by the Bank of England. Monetary Policy Report
At the August 2023 meeting, the interest rate was increased to 5.25%. Members of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee considered it appropriate to raise borrowing costs in a strong labor market to curb price increases. At the same time, further tightening of monetary policy may be required to bring inflation to the target level of 2.0%.
However, starting from the September 2023 meeting, the Bank of England is taking a wait-and-see approach.
It is likely that at this meeting the Bank of England will take a pause again, despite the still high level of inflation in the country and the positive macro data from the UK, given the difficult geopolitical situation in Europe, in particular in Ukraine.
At the same time, there are more and more supporters of the opinion among economists that the Bank of England may lower interest rates. However, the market’s reaction to such a decision can be completely unpredictable.
Also at this time, the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of England are published with the breakdown of votes for and against raising/lowering the interest rate. The main risks for the UK after Brexit are related to expectations of a slowdown in the country’s economic growth, as well as a large current account deficit in the UK’s balance of payments.
Intrigue about the Bank of England’s further actions remains. And in trading the pound and futures on the FTSE100 index, there are plenty of trading opportunities during the period when the bank’s decision on rates is published.
Also at the same time, the Bank of England’s monetary policy report will be published, containing an assessment of the economic outlook and inflation. At this time, volatility in pound quotes may increase sharply. One of the main benchmarks for the Bank of England regarding the outlook for monetary policy in the UK, in addition to GDP, is the rate of inflation. If the tone of the report is soft, the British stock market will receive support and the pound will decline. Conversely, the report’s tough rhetoric on curbing inflation, implying further interest rate hikes in the UK, will lead to a stronger pound.
11:30 – GBP: Speech by head of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey
Financial market participants are waiting for Andrew Bailey to clarify the situation regarding the future policy of the UK central bank. Volatility during a speech by the head of the Bank of England usually rises sharply in the pound and the London FTSE index if he gives any hints about tightening or easing the monetary policy of the Bank of England. It is likely that Andrew Bailey will also provide explanations regarding the Bank of England’s decision on the interest rate and will touch upon the state and prospects of the British economy against the backdrop of high energy prices and inflation. If Bailey does not touch on monetary policy issues, then the reaction to his speech will be weak.
14:00 – USD: Manufacturing PMI (from ISM)
The US Manufacturing PMI published by the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) is an important indicator of the health of the US economy as a whole. A result above 50 is considered positive and strengthens the USD, while a result below 50 is considered negative for the US dollar.
Previous indicator values: 48.5, 48.7, 49.2, 50.3, 47.8, 49.1 in January 2024, 47.4 in December, 46.7 in November, 46.7 in October, 49.0 in September, 47.6 in August, 46.4 in July, 46.0 in June, 46.9 in May, 47.1 in April, 46.3 in March, 47.7 in February, 47. 4 (in January 2023).
The index again moved below 50, indicating a slowdown in this sector of the American economy. The growth of the indicator, its relative increase, is likely to support the dollar. If the indicator falls below the forecast and especially below 50, the dollar may weaken sharply in the short term.
Friday, August 2
06:30 – CHF: Consumer Price Index
Consumer Price Index (CPI) reflects the dynamics of retail prices for a group of goods and services included in the consumer basket. The CPI index is a key indicator of inflation. Active movement of the franc in the foreign exchange market will occur around its publication.
In the previous reporting month (June), consumer inflation increased by +1.3% in annual terms, but showed zero dynamics in monthly terms, after +0.3% (+1.4% in annual terms) in May, +0. 3% (+1.4% annualized) in April, 0% (+1.2% annualized) in February, +0.2% (+1.3% annualized) January 2024, December 2023 by +1.7%, in November by +1.4% and in October by +1.7% (in annual terms).
An indicator value below the forecast/previous value could provoke a weakening of the franc, since low inflation will force the Swiss Central Bank to adhere to a loose monetary policy. Conversely, a strong result will be a bullish factor for the CHF.
12:30 – USD: Average Hourly Wages. Non-farm Payrolls. Unemployment Rate
These are the most important indicators of the state of the labor market in the United States for July. Previous values: +0.3% in June, +0.4% in May, +0.2% in April, +0.3% in March, +0.1% in February, +0.6% in January 2024, +0.4% in December and November 2023, +0.2% in October, September and August, +0.4% in July and June, +0.3% in May, +0.5% in April, +0.3% in March, +0.2% in February, +0.3% in January 2023 / +206 thousand in June, 272 thousand in May, +165 thousand in April, + 310 thousand in March, +236 thousand in February, +256 thousand in January 2024, +290 thousand in December 2023, +182 thousand in November, +165 thousand in October, +246 thousand in September, +210 thousand in August 2023 / 4.1% in June, 4.0% in May, 3.9% in April, 3.8% in March, 3.9% in February, 3.7% in January 2024, December and November 2023, 3.9% in October, 3.8% in September and August, 3.5% in July, 3.6% in June, 3.7% in May, 3, 4% in April, 3.5% in March, 3.6% in February, 3.4% in January 2023.
In general, the indicators can be described as positive. However, predicting the market reaction to the publication of indicators is often difficult, because many indicators for previous periods may be revised. Now it will be even more difficult to do this, because the economic situation in the US and many other major economies remains inconsistent, with risks of recession and still high inflation.
In any case, when data from the US labor market is published, a surge in volatility is expected in trading not only in USD, but throughout the entire financial market. The most cautious investors might choose to stay out of the market during this period of time.
Price chart of USDJPY in real time mode
The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteFinance. The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2004/39/EC.
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