Economic Calendar for the Week 18.11.2024 – 24.11.2024

The US dollar and stock indices remain bullish amid optimism surrounding potential positive changes in the US economy after Donald Trump’s assumption of the US presidency.

Market participants continue to analyze the results of the US Fed meeting that ended earlier this month. Overall, the outcome of this meeting, as well as Trump’s return to the US presidency, appear to be positive factors for the US dollar. Most likely, the currency will continue to grow.

In the upcoming week, 18.11.2024 – 24.11.2024, investors will focus on the PMI data from Germany, the eurozone, the UK, and the US.

Note: During the coming week, new events may be added to the calendar, and / or some scheduled events may be canceled. GMT time

The article covers the following subjects:

Key facts

• Monday: no important macro statistics is scheduled.
• Tuesday: Canadian CPIs
• Wednesday: UK CPIs
• Thursday: US PMIs
• Friday: German, eurozone, UK PMIs
• Key event of the week: US PMIs

Monday, November 18

There are no important macro statistics scheduled to be released.

Tuesday, November 19

00:30 – AUD: Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes

The document is published two weeks after the meeting and the interest rate decision. If the RBA is optimistic about the country’s labor market and GDP growth rate and is hawkish on the inflation outlook, the rate may be increased at the next meeting, which is favorable for the Australian dollar. The bank’s dovish rhetoric on inflation, in particular, is putting pressure on the Australian dollar.

At the recent September 2024 meeting, the RBA paused again, keeping the interest rate unchanged at a 12-year high of 4.35% for the eighth consecutive meeting.

At the press conference after the meeting, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock stated that rates will remain at the same level for now and inflation and policy risks are “fairly balanced.”

Bullock stated that they «need to keep rates restrictive for the time being» while the risks of rising inflation persist.

Previously, Bullock mentioned that “inflation is still above our target, and it’s proving to be sticky.” Besides, inflation is “above the midpoint of the 2%–3% target range”, and the Reserve Bank Board suggests that “in the near term, it does not see interest rate cuts.”

Therefore, the RBA remains almost the only major central bank in the world that has explicitly stated that it will maintain a tight monetary policy stance.

If the released minutes contain unexpected information regarding the RBA monetary policy issues, the volatility in the Australian dollar will increase.

13:30 – CAD: Canadian Consumer Price Indexes

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) reflects the retail price trends of a selected basket of goods and services. Meanwhile, the Core CPI excludes fruits, vegetables, gasoline, fuel oil, natural gas, mortgage interest, intercity transportation, and tobacco products. The inflation target for the Bank of Canada ranges between 1% and 3%. A higher CPI reading is a sign of a rate hike and is positive for the Canadian dollar.

Previous values:

• CPI: -0.4% (+1.6% YoY),-0.2% (+2.0% YoY), +0.4% (+2.5% YoY), -0.1% (+2.7% YoY), +0.6% (+2.9% YoY), +0.5% (+2.7% YoY), +0.6% (+2.9% YoY), +0.6% (+2.9% YoY), +0.3% (+2.8% YoY), 0% (+2.9% YoY), -0.3% (+3.4% YoY), +0.1% (+3.1% YoY), +0.1% (+3.1% YoY), -0.1% (+3.8% YoY), +0.4% (+4.0% YoY), +0.6% (+3.3% YoY), +0.1% (+2.8% YoY);
• Core CPI released by the Bank of Canada: 0% (+1.6% YoY), -0.1% (+1.5% YoY), +0.3% (+1.7% YoY), -0.1% (+1.9% YoY), +0.6% (+1.8% YoY), +0.2% (+1.6% YoY), +0.5% (+2.0% YoY), +0.1% (+2.1% YoY), +0.1% (+2, 4% YoY), -0.5% (+2.6% YoY), +0.1% (+2.8% YoY), +0.3% (+2.7% YoY), -0.1% (+2.8% YoY), +0.1% (+3.3% YoY), +0.5% (+3.2% YoY), -0.1% (+3.2% YoY).

The data suggests that inflation continues to decelerate, which prompts the Canadian central bank to consider implementing a dovish monetary policy. If the expected data is worse than the previous values, it will negatively affect the Canadian dollar, but if the data exceeds expectations, it will bolster the currency.

Wednesday, November 20

01:15 – CNY: People’s Bank of China Interest Rate Decision

Since May 2012, the People’s Bank of China has been steadily lowering its interest rate to support Chinese manufacturers. Last time, the bank lowered the rate in October 2024 after a long pause since August 2023, bringing the rate down by 0.1% to its current level of 3.10%.

In 2024, the world’s major central banks have also started a policy easing cycle amid slowing inflation. What will the Chinese central bank do this time after pausing since September 2023 and easing policy in July 2024?

The People’s Bank of China will likely keep the interest rate unchanged at 3.35% at this meeting, although other decisions are also possible.

Should the People’s Bank of China make statements that deviate from expectations, volatility may increase across the entire financial market, particularly in the Asian one. Investors will closely watch the bank’s assessment of the Chinese economy’s prospects and its policy stance in the short term.

07:00 – GBP: Consumer Price Index. Core Consumer Price Index

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the retail prices of a group of goods and services comprising the UK consumer basket. The CPI is a key indicator of inflation. The British pound’s movement on the currency market and the London Stock Exchange FTSE 100 index performance depend on the release of the CPI data.

In September, the UK consumer inflation rose +1,7% YoY and 0% MoM following +0.3% (+2.2% YoY) in August, -0.2% (+2.2% YoY) in July, +0.1% (+2.0% YoY) in June, +0.3% (+2.0% YoY) in May, +0.3% (+2, 3% YoY) in April, +0.6% (+3.2% YoY) in March, +0.6% (+3.4% YoY), -0.6% (+4.0% YoY) in January 2024, +0.4% (+4.0% YoY) in December. The data suggests persistent inflationary pressures in the UK, which are expected to bolster the British pound, particularly if the actual data surpasses the forecasted values.

An indicator reading below the forecast/previous value may cause the weakening of the British pound since low inflation will force the Bank of England to stick to the easy monetary policy course.

The Core CPI, published by the Office for National Statistics, measures the price change in a selected basket of goods and services (excluding food and energy) over a given period. It is a key indicator for assessing inflation and changes in consumer preferences. A positive result strengthens the British pound, while a negative outcome weakens it.

In September,

Thursday, November 21

14:45 – USD: Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Index of the US Economy by S&P Global. Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (Preliminary Releases)

The PMIs of the most important US economic sectors, released by S&P Global, are an important gauge of the US economic conditions. A PMI reading above 50 signals bullishness, bolstering the US dollar, whereas a reading below 50 bodes negatively for the greenback.

Previous values:

• Manufacturing PMI: 48.5, 47.6, 47.9, 49.6, 51.6, 51.3, 50.0, 51.9, 52.2, 50.7, 47.9, 50.0, 49.8, 49.0, 46.3, 48.4, 50.2, 47.3, 46.9, 46.2, 47.7, 50.4, 52.0, 51.5;
• Services PMI: 55.0, 55.2, 55.7, 55.0, 55.3, 54.8, 51.3, 51.7, 52.3, 52.5, 51.4, 50.6, 50.1, 52.3, 54.4, 54.9, 53.6, 50.6, 46.8, 44.7, 46.2, 47.8, 49.3, 43.7, 47.3, 52.7, 53.4, 55.6;
• Composite PMI: 54.1, 54.0, 54.6, 54.3, 54.8, 54.5, 51.3, 52.1, 52.5, 52.0, 50.9, 50.7, 50.2, 52.0, 53.2, 54.3, 53.4, 52.3, 50.1, 46.8 in January 2023.

Friday, November 22

07:00 – GBP: Retail Sales

The retail sales economic indicator is a key metric that tracks the level of consumer demand and significantly impacts market performance and the national currency. Additionally, it serves as an indirect indicator of inflation, making it a key concern for a country’s central bank and market participants.

The Retail Sales report is released by the UK Office for National Statistics. The Retail Sales change is considered to indicate the consumer spending level. High indicator values are positive for the British pound, while low readings are negative..

Previous index values YoY: +3.9%, +2.5%, +1.4%, -1.2%, +1.3%, -2.3%, +0.4%, -0.3%, +0.4% in January 2024, -2.8% in December 2023, +0.0%, -2.3%, -1.1%, -1.2%, -3.1%, -1.8 in June 2023.

08:30 – EUR: Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Index of the German Economy by S&P Global. Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index of the German Economy by S&P Global (Preliminary Release)

The manufacturing and services PMIs are important indicators of the business environment and the health of the German economy. These sectors play a significant role in Germany’s GDP. A reading above 50 indicates a positive outlook and bolsters the euro, while a reading below 50 is negative for the euro. Conversely, data worse than the forecasted and/or the previous value will prove to be negative for the euro.

Previous values:

• Manufacturing PMI: 43.0, 40.6, 42.4, 43.2, 43.5, 45.4, 42.5, 41.9, 42.5, 45.5, 43.3, 40.8, 39.6, 38.8, 40.6, 43.2, 44.5, 44.7, 46.3, 47.3, 47.1, 46.2, 45.1, 47.8, 49.1, 49.3, 52.0, 54.8, 54.6;
• Services PMI: 51.6, 50.6, 51.2, 52.5, 53.1, 54.2, 53.2, 50.1, 48.3, 47.7, 45.7, 48.2, 50.3, 52.3, 54.1, 57.2, 56.0, 53.7, 50.9, 50.7, 49.2, 46.1, 46.5, 45.0, 47.7, 49.7, 52.4, 55.0, 57.6, 56.1, 55.8;
• Composite PMI: 48.6, 47.5, 48.4, 49.1, 50.4, 52.4, 50.6, 47.7, 46.3, 47.0, 47.4, 45.9, 46.4, 48.5, 50.6, 53.9, 54.2, 52.6, 50.7, 49.9, 49.0, 46.3, 45.1, 45.7, 46.9, 48.1, 51.3, 53.7, 54.3, 55.1, 55.6.

09:00 – EUR: Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Index. Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index of Eurozone Manufacturing Activity by S&P Global (Preliminary Release)

The eurozone manufacturing and services PMIs are significant indicators of the European economy state. Readings above 50 are positive and strengthen the euro, while readings below 50 are negative for the currency. If the figures are worse than the forecasted and/or the previous value, the euro will be affected negatively.

Previous values:

• Manufacturing PMI: 46.0, 45.0, 45.8, 45.8, 45.8, 47.3, 45.7, 46.1, 46.5, 46.6, 44.4, 43.1, 47.2, 42.7, 43.4, 44.8, 45.8, 47.3, 48.5, 48.8 in January 2023;
• Services PMI: 51.6, 51.4, 52.9, 51.9, 52.8, 53.2, 53.3, 51.5, 50.2, 48.4, 48.8, 47.8, 48.7, 50.9, 52.0, 55.1, 56.2, 55.0, 52.7, 50.8 in January 2023;
• Composite PMI: 50.0, 49.6, 51.0, 50.2, 50.9, 52.2, 51.7, 50.3, 49.2, 47.9, 47.6, 46.5, 47.2, 48.6, 52.8, 54.1, 53.7, 52.0, 50.3, 49.3 in January 2023.

09:30 – GBP: Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Index. Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index of the UK Manufacturing Sector by S&P Global (Preliminary Release)

The manufacturing and services PMIs serve as a vital indicator of the UK economy’s health. The services sector employs the majority of the UK’s working-age population and contributes approximately 75% of GDP. Financial services continue to be the most important part of the services sector. If the data is worse than forecast and the previous value, the British pound will likely experience a short-term but sharp decline. If the data exceeds the forecast and the previous value, it will have a positive impact on the currency. At the same time, a PMI reading above 50 is favorable and strengthens the British pound, while a reading below 50 is negative for the currency.

Previous values:

• Manufacturing PMI: 49.9, 51,5, 52.5, 52.1, 50.9, 51.2, 49.1, 50.3, 47.5, 47.0, 46.2, 44.8, 44.3, 45.3, 46.5, 47.1, 47.8, 47.9, 49.3, 47.0, 45.3, 46.5, 46.2, 48.4;
• Services PMI: 52.0, 51.4, 53.7, 52.5, 52.1, 52.9, 55.0, 53.1, 53.8, 54.3, 53.4, 49.5, 49.3, 51.5, 53.7, 55.2, 55.9, 52.9, 53.5, 48.7, 49.9, 48.8, 48.8, 50.0, 50.9, 52.6;
• Composite PMI: 51.8, 49.6, 53.8, 52.8, 52.3, 53.0, 54.1, 52.8, 53.0, 52.9, 52.1, 48.7, 48.5, 50.8, 52.8, 54.0, 54.9, 52.2, 53.1, 48.5 in January 2023.

Price chart of GBPUSD in real time mode

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