Economic Calendar for the Week 03.03.2025 – 09.03.2025

Volatility continues to sway the markets. Since the start of the year, plenty of news and fundamental factors have impacted financial conditions, particularly surrounding Trump’s inauguration as President of the United States on January 20.

The news revolving around Trump’s statements, who is becoming a major newsmaker lately, continues to shake up the markets.

In the upcoming week, 03.03.2025 – 09.03.2025, market participants will focus on the publication of important macro statistics on China, the eurozone, the US, Australia, Switzerland, and Canada, as well as the results of the ECB meeting.

The key event will probably be the release of monthly data from the US labor market on Friday.

Note: During the coming week, new events may be added to the calendar, and/or some scheduled events may be canceled. GMT time

The article covers the following subjects:

Major Takeaways

• Monday: US manufacturing PMI by ISM.
• Tuesday: Reserve Bank of Australia February meeting minutes.
• Wednesday: Australian GDP, Swiss CPIs, ADP report, US services PMI by ISM.
• Thursday: ECB meeting.
• Friday: Statistics Canada and the US Department of Labor report for February.
• Key event of the week: US Department of Labor report for February.

Monday, March 3

01:45 – CNY: Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI

The Caixin Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a leading indicator of China’s manufacturing sector. As the world’s second-largest economy, China’s release of significant macroeconomic data may strongly influence the financial market.

Previous values: 50.1 in January 2025, 50.5 in December 2024, 51.5, 50.3, 49.3, 50.4, 49.8, 51.8, 51.7, 51.4, 51.1, 50.9, 50.8, 50.8, 50.8, 50.7, 49.5, 50.6, 51.0, 49.2, 50.5, 50.9, 49.5, 50.0, 51.6, 49.2 in January 2023.

A decline in the indicator value and reading below 50 may negatively affect the renminbi, as well as commodity currencies such as the New Zealand and Australian dollar. Data that exceeds forecasted or previous values will have a positive impact on these currencies.

10:00 – EUR: Consumer Price Index. Core Consumer Price Index (Preliminary Releases)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), published by Eurostat, measures the price change of a selected basket of goods and services over a given period. The CPI is a key indicator for evaluating inflation and consumer preferences. A positive indicator result strengthens the euro, while a negative one weakens it.

Previous values YOY: +2.5% in January 2025, +2.4% in December 2024, +2.2%, +2.0%, +1.7%, +2.2%, +2.6%, +2.5%, +2.6%, +2.4%, +2.4%, +2.6%, +2.8% in January 2024, +2.9%, +2.4%, +2.9%, +4.3%, +5.2%, +5.3%, +5.5%, +6.1%, +6.1%, +7.0%, +6.9%, +8,5%, +8.6% in January 2023, +9.2%, +10.1%, +10.6%, +9.9%, +9.1%, +8.9%, +8.6%, +8.1%, +7.4%, +7.4%, +5.9%, +5.1% in January 2022.

If the data is worse than the forecasted value, the euro may face a short-term but sharp decline. Conversely, if the data surpasses the forecast and/or the previous value, it could strengthen the euro in the short term. The ECB’s consumer inflation target is just below 2.0%, and the reading suggests that inflation continues to decline in the eurozone.

According to an accompanying statement following the ECB’s October meeting, when its leaders decided to cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, the regulator stated that the disinflation process is underway.

The Core Consumer Price Index (Core CPI) determines the price change of a selected basket of goods and services over a given period and is a key indicator for assessing inflation and consumer preference. Food and energy are excluded from this indicator in order to provide a more accurate assessment. A high result strengthens the euro, while a low one weakens it.

Previous values YOY: +2.7% in January 2025, 2.7% in December 2024, +2.7%, +2.7%, +2.7%, +2.8%, +2.9%, +2.9%, +2.9%, +2.7%, +2.9%, +3.1%, +3.3% in January 2024, +3.4%, +3.6% +4.2%, +4.5%, +5.3%, +5.5%, +5.5%, +5.3%, +5.3%, +5.6%, +5.7%, +5.6%, +5.3%, +5.2%, +5.0%, +5.0%, +4.8%, +4.3%, +4.0%, +3.7%, +3.8%, +3.5%, +3.0%, +2.7%, +2.3% in January 2022.

If the February 2024 figures are weaker than the previous or forecasted value, the euro may be negatively affected. If the data turns out to be better than the forecasted or previous value, the currency will likely grow.

According to recently reported data, the eurozone’s core inflation rate is still high, above the ECB’s target of 2.0%. As a result, the ECB is inclined to maintain high interest rates, which is favorable for the euro in normal economic conditions.

15:00 – USD: US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index

The US PMI published by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) is an important measure of the US economy. When the index surpasses 50, it bolsters the US dollar, whereas readings below 50 have a detrimental effect on the greenback.

Previous values: 50.9 in January 2025, 49.3 in December 2024, 48.4, 46.5, 47.2, 47.2, 46.8, 48.5, 48.7, 49.2, 50.3, 47.8, 49.1 in January 2024, 47.4 in December, 46.7 in November, 46.7 in October, 49.0 in September, 47.6 in August, 46.4 in July, 46.0 in June, 46.9 in May, 47.1 in April, 46.3 in March, 47.7 in February, 47.4 in January 2023.

The index has been below the 50 level for several months now, indicating a slowdown in this sector of the US economy. The growth of index values supports the US dollar. Conversely, if the index reading falls below the forecasted values or below 50, the greenback may sharply depreciate in the short term.

Tuesday, March 4

00:30 – AUD: Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes. Retail Sales

The document is published two weeks after the meeting and the interest rate decision. If the Reserve Bank of Australia is optimistic about the country’s labor market and GDP growth rate and is hawkish on the inflation outlook, the rate may be increased at the next meeting, which is favorable for the Australian dollar. The bank’s dovish rhetoric on inflation, in particular, is putting pressure on the Australian dollar.

At the recent February 2025 meeting, the RBA cut the key interest rate to 4.10% by 25 basis points for the first time since November 2020. Until this meeting, RBA leaders had consistently kept the interest rate unchanged at a 12-year high of 4.35% for the ninth consecutive meeting.

According to the accompanying statement, any further monetary policy easing hinges on successfully reducing inflation. If the monetary policy is eased too much or too quickly, there is a risk that disinflation may stall, leaving inflation above the midpoint of the target range. Additionally, the struggling labor market is also holding the RBA back from implementing these measures.

At the press conference after the meeting, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock said that the Board of Governors was cautious about the prospect of further reductions in borrowing costs. Previously, she stated that rates will remain at the same level for now and inflation and policy risks are “fairly balanced.”

Nonetheless, Bulock noted that the outlook remains uncertain.

If the released minutes contain unexpected information regarding the RBA monetary policy issues, the volatility in the Australian dollar will increase.

The Retail Sales Index, published monthly by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, measures the total retail sales volume. The index is often considered an indicator of consumer confidence and spending, reflecting also the near-term state of the retail sector. In advanced economies, domestic consumption plays a significant role in driving GDP growth.

Therefore, deterioration of the indicator values may reveal problems with the country’s GDP growth in the future. This is a negative factor for the national currency, as the economic slowdown may force the national central bank to ease monetary policy for businesses by lowering interest rates in particular.

A surge in the index readings is usually positive for the Australian dollar.

December 2024 index value: -0.1% (after +0.8%, +0.6%, +0.1%, +0.7%, 0%, +0.5%, +0.6%, +0.1%, -0.4%, +0.2% +1.1%, -2.7%, +2.0%, -0.4%, +0.9%, +0.3%, +0.5%, -0.8%, +0.8%, 0%, +0.4%, +0.2%, +1.9%, -3.9%, +1.7%, +0.4%, +0.6%, +0.6%, +1.3%, +0.2% in previous months). If the data is weaker than the previous figures, the Australian dollar may experience a short-term decline. Conversely, if the data surpasses the previous values, the currency will likely strengthen.

Wednesday, March 5

00:30 – AUD: Australian GDP for Q4

The Australian Bureau of Statistics releases its report on the country’s GDP for Q4 2024. GDP is a key indicator of the Australian economy’s health. A strong report will bolster the Australian dollar, while a weak GDP report will drag the currency down.

Previous values: +0.3% (+0.8% YoY) in Q3, +0.2% (+1.0% YoY) in Q2, +0.1% (+1.1% YoY) in Q1 2024, +0.2% (+1.5% YoY) in Q4 2023, +0.2% (+2.1% YoY) in Q3, +0.4% (+2.1% YoY) in Q2, +0.2% (+2.3% YoY) in Q1 2023, +0.5% (+2,7% YoY) in Q4, +0.6% (+5.9% YoY) in Q3, +0.9% (+3.6% YoY) in Q2, +0.8% (+3.3% YoY) in Q1, +3.4% (+4.2% YoY) in Q4, -1.9% in Q3, +0.7% in Q2, +1.8% in Q1 2021. A higher reading is positive for the Australian dollar, while a lower reading is negative. If the data falls short of the forecast, the currency may decline.

01:45 – CNY: Caixin China General Services PMI

The Caixin Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a leading indicator of China’s services sector. Since China’s economy is the second largest in the world, the release of its significant macroeconomic indicators can profoundly influence the overall financial market.

Previous values: 51.0 in January 2024, 52.2 in December 2024, 51,5, 52.0, 50.3, 51.6, 52.1, 51.2, 54.0, 52.5, 52.7, 52.5, 52.7 in January 2024, 52.9, 51.5, 50.4, 50.2, 51.8, 54.1, 53.9, 57.1, 56.4, 57.8, 55.0, 52.9 in January 2023.

Although an index value above 50 indicates growth, a relative decline in the indicator may adversely affect the yuan. Since China is the most important trade and economic partner of Australia and New Zealand, a deterioration in Chinese macro data may negatively impact the Australian and New Zealand dollars. Conversely, an increase in Chinese macro figures is usually positive for these currencies.

07:30 – CHF: Consumer Price Index

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) reflects the retail price trends for a group of goods and services comprising the consumer basket. The CPI is a key gauge of inflation. Additionally, the index has a significant impact on the value of the Swiss franc.

In January 2025, consumer inflation gained +0.4% YoY but declined by -0.1% MoM after -0.1% (+0.6% YoY) in December, -0.1% (+0.7% YoY) in November, -0.1% (+0.6% YoY) in October, -0.3% (+0.8% YoY) in September, 0% (+1.1% YoY) in August, -0.2% (+1.3% YoY) in July, 0% (+1.3% YoY) in June, +0.3% (+1.4% YoY) in May, +0.3% (+1.4% YoY) in April, 0% (+1.2% YoY) in February, +0.2% (+1.3% YoY) January 2024, +1.7% in December 2023, +1.4% in November, and +1.7% YoY in October.

An index reading below the forecasted or previous value may weaken the Swiss franc, as low inflation will force the Swiss Central Bank to ease its monetary policy. Conversely, a high reading would be positive for the Swiss franc.

13:15 – USD: ADP Private Sector Employment Report

The ADP report on private sector employment significantly impacts the market and the US dollar. An increase in this indicator value positively affects the greenback. The number of workers in the US private sector is expected to increase again in February after rising by 183k in January 2025, 176k in December 2024,146k in November, 184k in October, 159k in September, 103k in August, 111k in July, 155k in June, 157k in May, 188k in April, 208k in March, 155k in February, 111k in January 2024, 158k in December, 104k in November, 111k in October, 137k in September, 135k in August, 307k in July, 543k in June, 206k in May, 293k in April, 103k in March, 275k in February, 131k in January 2023.

The growth of the index values may positively affect the US dollar while law index readings adversely. A negative market reaction and a potential decline in the dollar may occur if the data turns out to be worse than forecasted.

The ADP report is not directly correlated with the official data of the US Department of Labor, which is due on Friday. However, the ADP report often serves as a forerunner of the department’s data and significantly influences the market.

15:00 – USD: US ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index

The PMI assesses the state of the US services sector, accounting for about 80% of US GDP. The share of final goods production is about 20% of GDP, including 1% for agriculture and 18% for industrial production. Therefore, the publication of the services sector data significantly impacts the US dollar. An indicator reading above 50 is positive for the currency.

Previous values: 52.8 in January 2025, 54.1 in December 2024, 52.1 in November, 56.0 in October, 54.9 in September, 51.5 in August, 51.4 in July, 48.8 in June, 53.8 in May, 49.4 in April, 51.4 in March, 52.6 in February, 53.4 in January 2024, 50.5 in December, 52.5 in November, 51.9 in October, 53.4 in September, 54.5 in August, 52.7 in July, 53.9 in June, 50.3 in May, 51, 9 in April, 51.2 in March, 55.1 in February, 55.2 in January 2023, 49.6 in December, 56.5 in November, 54.4 in October, 56.9 in August, 56.7 in July, 55.3 in June, 55.9 in May, 57.1 in April, 58.3 in March, 56.5 in February, 59.9 in January 2022.

The growth of index values will favorably affect the US dollar. However, a relative decline in the index values and readings below 50 may negatively affect the US dollar in the short term.

Thursday, March 6

00:30 – AUD: Balance of Trade

Balance of Trade is an indicator that measures the ratio between exports and imports. An increase in Australian exports leads to a larger trade surplus, positively affecting the Australian dollar. Previous values (in billion Australian dollars): 5.085 in December, 7.079 in November, 5.953 in October, 4,609 in September, 5.644 in August, 5.636 in July, 5.425 in June, 5.052 in May, 6.678 in April, 4.841 in March, 6.707 in February, and 9.873 in January 2024.

A decrease in the trade surplus could negatively affect the Australian dollar, while an increase in the indicator figure may bolster the currency.

10:00 – EUR: Eurozone Retail Sales

Retail sales data is the main measure of consumer spending, indicating the change in the sales volume. A high indicator result strengthens the euro, while a low one weakens it.

Previous values: -0.2% (+1.9% YoY), +0.1% (+1.2% YoY) in December 2024, -0.5% (+1.9% YoY), +0.5% (+2.9% YoY), +0.2% (+0.8% YoY), +0.1% (-0.1% YoY), -0.3% (-0.3% YoY), +0.1% (+0.3% YoY), -0.5% (0% YoY), +0.8% (+0.7% YoY), -0.5% (-0.7% YoY), +0.1% (-1.0% YoY) in January 2024, -1.1% (-0.8% YoY) in December, -0.3% (-1.1% YoY) in November, +0.1% (-1.2% YoY) in October, -0.3% (-2.9% YoY) in Sept, 1.2% (-2.1% YoY) in August, -0.2% (-1.0% YoY) in July, -0.3% (-1.4% YoY) in June, 0% (-2.4% YoY) in May, -1.2% (-2.9% YoY) in April, -0.8% (-3.3% YoY) in March, +0.3% (-2.4% YoY) in February, -2.7% (-1.8% YoY) in January, +0.8% (-2.8% YoY) in December 2022.

The data suggests that retail sales have not returned to pre-pandemic levels after a severe drop in March–April 2020, when Europe was under strict quarantine measures, and are periodically declining again. Nevertheless, values exceeding the forecast will strengthen the euro.

13:15 – EUR: European Central Bank’s Interest Rate Decision. ECB Monetary Policy Statement

The European Central Bank will publish its decision on the main refinancing operations and the deposit facility rates, which currently stand at 2.90% and 2.75%, respectively.

The ECB’s tight stance on inflation and the level of key interest rates favor the euro, while a softer stance and lower rates weaken it. Given the high inflation in the eurozone, according to the ECB leadership, the risk balance for the eurozone’s economic outlook remains negative.

Anyway, eurozone inflation has started to rise again after a long period of deceleration, when it stood at 10.7% in October 2022 (+2.3% in November, +2.0% in October, +1.4% in September, +2.2% in August, +2.6% in July, +2.5% in June, +2.6% in May, +2.4% in April and March 2024. However, the ECB policymakers suggest that inflation is still high, and the Governing Council is determined to reduce it to 2% in a timely manner. At the same time, the ECB made it clear that if deflation resumes, interest rates will be lowered again.

The ECB considers that GDP growth may decelerate due to the energy crisis in the EU, increased economic uncertainty, global economic slowdown, and stricter financing conditions. Although the recession is not expected to last long, robust growth is also unlikely.

Thus, according to the ECB leaders’ signals, the main refinancing operations and the deposit facility rates may be reduced at the end of this meeting. However, a tighter decision and increase in interest rates, as well as the pause, are possible, given the high risks of recession and slowing inflation in the eurozone.

A dovish tone of the statements will negatively impact the euro. Conversely, a hawkish tone regarding the central bank’s monetary policy will bolster the euro.

13:45 – EUR: European Central Bank’s Press Conference

This press conference will draw significant attention from market participants. Volatility may increase not only in euro quotes but also across the entire financial market if the ECB leaders make unexpected statements. ECB executives will evaluate the current economic situation in the eurozone and provide insights on the bank’s rate decision. Historically, after some ECB meetings and subsequent press conferences, the euro exchange rate experienced fluctuations of 3%–5% in a short time frame.

A dovish tone of the statements will negatively impact the euro. Conversely, a hawkish tone regarding the central bank’s monetary policy will bolster the euro.

Friday, March 7

10:00 – EUR: Eurozone GDP for Q4 (Final Estimate)

GDP is considered to be an indicator of the overall economic health. A rising trend of the GDP indicator is positive for the euro, while a low reading weakens the currency.

Recent eurozone macro data has shown a gradual recovery in the growth rate of the European economy after a sharp decline in early 2020.

Previous values: +0.4% (+0.9% YoY) in Q3, +0.2% (+0.6% YoY) in Q2, +0.3% (+0.4% YoY) in Q1 2024, 0% (+0.1% YoY) in Q4 2023, -0.1% (0% YoY) in Q3, +0.1% (+0.5% YoY) in Q2, -0.1% (+1.0% YoY) in Q1 2023, 0% (+1.9% YoY) in Q4 2022, +0.7% (+4,0% YoY) in Q3, +0.8% (+4.1% YoY) in Q4 2022, +0.7% (+4,6% YoY) in Q3, +2.2% (+3.9% YoY) in Q3, +2.2% (+14.3% YoY) in Q2, and -0.3% (-1.3% YoY) in Q1 2021.

If the data is below the forecasted and/or previous values, the euro may decline. Conversely, readings exceeding the predicted values may strengthen the euro in the short term. However, the European economy is still far from fully recovering even to pre-crisis levels.

The preliminary estimate stood at +0.1% (+0.9% YoY).

13:30 – CAD: Canada Unemployment Rate

Statistics Canada will release the country’s November labor market data. Massive business closures due to the coronavirus and layoffs have also contributed to the unemployment rate, increasing from the usual 5.6%–5.7% to 7.8% in March and 13.7% in May 2020.

In January 2025, unemployment stood at 6.6% against 6.7% in December 2024, 6.8% in November, 6.5% in October and September, 6.6% in August, 6.4% in July and June, 6.2% in May, 6.1% in April and March, 5.8% in February, 5.7% in January 2024, 5.8% in December and November 2023, 5.7% in October, 5.5% in September, August, and July, 5.4% in June, 5.2% in May, 5.0% in April, March, February, January, December, 5.1% in November, 5.2% in October and September, 5.4% in August, 4.9% in July and June, 5.1% in May, 5.2% in April, 5.3% in March, 5.5% in February, 6.5% in January 2022.

If the unemployment rate continues to rise, the Canadian dollar will depreciate. If the data exceeds the previous value, the Canadian dollar will strengthen. A decrease in the unemployment rate is a positive factor for the Canadian dollar, while an increase is a negative factor.

13:30 – USD: Average Hourly Earnings. Private Nonfarm Payrolls. Unemployment Rate

The most significant US labor market indicators for February. 

Previous values: +0.5% in January 2025, +0.3% in December 2024, +0.4% in November, October, September, and August, +0.2% in July, +0.3% in June, +0.4% in May, +0.2% in April, +0.3% in March, +0.1% in February, +0.6% in January 2024, +0.4% in December and November 2023, +0.2% in October, September, and August, +0.4% in July and June, +0.3% in May, +0.5% in April, +0.3% in March, +0.2% in February, +0.3% in January 2023 / 227k in November, 36k in October, +255k in September, +78k in August, +114k in July, +118k in June, 216k in May, +108k in April, +310k in March, +236k in February, +256k in January 2024, +290k in December 2023, +182k in November, +165k in October, +246k in September, +210k in August 2023, +210k in August 2023 / 4.2% in November, 4.1% in October and September, 4.2% in August, 4.3% in July, 4.1% in June, 4.0% in May, 3.9% in April, 3.8% in March, 3.9% in February, 3.7% in January 2024, December and November 2023, 3.9% in October, 3.8% in September and August, 3.5% in July, 3.6% in June, 3.7% in May, 3.4% in April, 3.5% in March, 3.6% in February, 3.4% in January 2023.

Overall, the values are positive. Nevertheless, it is often difficult to predict the market’s reaction to the data release, given that many previous figures can be revised. This task becomes even more challenging now due to the contradictory economic situation in the US and many other large economies with the looming risk of recession alongside persistently high inflation.

Regardless, the release of the US labor market data is anticipated to prompt increased volatility not just in the US dollar but also in the entire financial market. Most risk-averse investors will probably prefer to stay out of the market during this period.

Price chart of EURUSD in real time mode

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