‘It’s Hard to Make Predictions, Especially About the Future’
The quote on the difficulty of forecasting future events has been attributed to individuals as varied as Nobel laureate in physics Niels Bohr and baseball legend Yogi Berra (who also remarked that “the future ain’t what it used to be”).
If Berra—who, unlike Bohr, has the distinction of having a cartoon character named after him—were still with us, he would likely be amused by the fuss over prediction markets trading.
The appeal of forecast contracts is clear, especially to well-informed traders, and has attracted attention from both new and established market players. As we have previously reported, Webull entered the market with Kalshi in February and recently extended its offering to cryptocurrency speculation. Meanwhile, after an earlier false start, Robinhood announced a prediction markets hub in March.
Interactive Brokers has recently expanded its prediction markets trading hours, and even Charles Schwab has acknowledged it is watching this market, despite having no immediate plans to enter it.
The head of one crypto investment firm has likened prediction markets to where crypto was in 2010—“a new asset class on a path to trillions”—and others suggest prediction markets are becoming a barometer for investors.
While crypto-related predictions seem set to grow, the future of sports events contracts remains less certain. Gambling regulators and sports bodies in the US argue that this market should fall under sports betting rules, which would restrict the number of states where such contracts can be offered.
Last month, the CFTC was criticised by the head of the Arizona Department of Gaming, who suggested that brokers were breaching state law. In a letter to the CFTC, Jackie Johnson wrote, “There is no meaningful difference between buying one of the contracts offered by the designated contract markets and placing a bet with any other sportsbook.”
A number of states have reportedly issued cease-and-desist orders to brokers offering prediction markets.
However, the man expected to become chair of the CFTC seems to support the provision of sports events contracts. In a Senate hearing in June, Brian Quintenz suggested that prediction markets would not face additional regulation and that it was not the regulator’s job to determine what qualifies as an acceptable event contract.
Data Drive Divides Opinion but Brokers Need to Be Ready
European regulators are pushing for a data-driven economy, supported by legal frameworks that promote data sharing. As part of this effort, the European Commission introduced the Financial Data Access (FIDA) regulation proposal in June 2023, aiming to give customers greater control over their financial data and to make sharing it safer and easier.
FIDA seeks to expand data sharing beyond payment accounts under PSD2, to include various financial products offered by brokers, who would be required to share customer data with third parties—but only with the customer’s consent.
The idea is that brokers could use this data to offer more suitable investment options to retail investors. Providing secure access and using customer data to add value will be essential.
While the final terms are still being negotiated, current expectations are that the trilogue talks (informal discussions between the European Parliament, the Council of the EU and the European Commission) will conclude by the end of this year, with the regulation set to come into effect by 2027.
You may also like: The Challenges and Opportunities of Data Privacy and Security in the Fintech Ecosystem
The Investment Association has already backed the regulation, viewing it as a way to simplify data sharing among market players and develop tools to give investors a single view of their portfolios.
Other organisations are more cautious. The Euro Banking Association notes that many in the industry are unsure whether the cost and complexity involved will deliver enough benefit, and there are concerns about risks that could hurt competitiveness.
The Fédération Européenne des Conseils et Intermédiaires Financiers (FECIF) has highlighted concerns about data protection, governance of personal and advisory data, and the potential for misuse by AI-driven systems that collect and reuse financial data.
There is a clear feeling that any system should promote trust and transparency within Europe, rather than making it easier for data to flow out of the region.
UK ‘Leeds’ Retail Investors Toward Private Markets
West Yorkshire in Northern England has a long tradition of innovation, having emerged from the Industrial Revolution as a global manufacturing centre. So it may be fitting that the county’s largest city has given its name to a series of proposals that could reshape retail investing in the UK.
The so-called Leeds Reforms include plans to allow individuals to invest in long-term asset funds through stocks and shares individual savings accounts (ISAs).
The UK government is keen to encourage cautious retail investors to move more of their money from cash ISAs—where returns are fixed—to stocks and shares ISAs, to help stimulate capital markets. From April 2026, those holding large cash deposits in low-interest accounts will be targeted with information about investment options.
The government claims that, if current trends continue, retail investors who move £2,000 from these accounts into stocks and shares could be over £9,000 better off after 20 years. Sectors expected to offer strong dividend income include utilities and consumer goods, though investors are advised to reduce UK-specific risk by including some overseas stocks.
The timing appears favourable. The FTSE 100 share index recently passed 9,000 points for the first time, driven by improved earnings across several sectors including banking and defence, as well as new share buy-back plans.
The presence of many multinational firms in the index highlights the global nature of the UK’s capital markets. Analysts estimate that roughly three-quarters of FTSE 100 company earnings are in foreign currencies.
‘It’s Hard to Make Predictions, Especially About the Future’
The quote on the difficulty of forecasting future events has been attributed to individuals as varied as Nobel laureate in physics Niels Bohr and baseball legend Yogi Berra (who also remarked that “the future ain’t what it used to be”).
If Berra—who, unlike Bohr, has the distinction of having a cartoon character named after him—were still with us, he would likely be amused by the fuss over prediction markets trading.
The appeal of forecast contracts is clear, especially to well-informed traders, and has attracted attention from both new and established market players. As we have previously reported, Webull entered the market with Kalshi in February and recently extended its offering to cryptocurrency speculation. Meanwhile, after an earlier false start, Robinhood announced a prediction markets hub in March.
Interactive Brokers has recently expanded its prediction markets trading hours, and even Charles Schwab has acknowledged it is watching this market, despite having no immediate plans to enter it.
The head of one crypto investment firm has likened prediction markets to where crypto was in 2010—“a new asset class on a path to trillions”—and others suggest prediction markets are becoming a barometer for investors.
While crypto-related predictions seem set to grow, the future of sports events contracts remains less certain. Gambling regulators and sports bodies in the US argue that this market should fall under sports betting rules, which would restrict the number of states where such contracts can be offered.
Last month, the CFTC was criticised by the head of the Arizona Department of Gaming, who suggested that brokers were breaching state law. In a letter to the CFTC, Jackie Johnson wrote, “There is no meaningful difference between buying one of the contracts offered by the designated contract markets and placing a bet with any other sportsbook.”
A number of states have reportedly issued cease-and-desist orders to brokers offering prediction markets.
However, the man expected to become chair of the CFTC seems to support the provision of sports events contracts. In a Senate hearing in June, Brian Quintenz suggested that prediction markets would not face additional regulation and that it was not the regulator’s job to determine what qualifies as an acceptable event contract.
Data Drive Divides Opinion but Brokers Need to Be Ready
European regulators are pushing for a data-driven economy, supported by legal frameworks that promote data sharing. As part of this effort, the European Commission introduced the Financial Data Access (FIDA) regulation proposal in June 2023, aiming to give customers greater control over their financial data and to make sharing it safer and easier.
FIDA seeks to expand data sharing beyond payment accounts under PSD2, to include various financial products offered by brokers, who would be required to share customer data with third parties—but only with the customer’s consent.
The idea is that brokers could use this data to offer more suitable investment options to retail investors. Providing secure access and using customer data to add value will be essential.
While the final terms are still being negotiated, current expectations are that the trilogue talks (informal discussions between the European Parliament, the Council of the EU and the European Commission) will conclude by the end of this year, with the regulation set to come into effect by 2027.
You may also like: The Challenges and Opportunities of Data Privacy and Security in the Fintech Ecosystem
The Investment Association has already backed the regulation, viewing it as a way to simplify data sharing among market players and develop tools to give investors a single view of their portfolios.
Other organisations are more cautious. The Euro Banking Association notes that many in the industry are unsure whether the cost and complexity involved will deliver enough benefit, and there are concerns about risks that could hurt competitiveness.
The Fédération Européenne des Conseils et Intermédiaires Financiers (FECIF) has highlighted concerns about data protection, governance of personal and advisory data, and the potential for misuse by AI-driven systems that collect and reuse financial data.
There is a clear feeling that any system should promote trust and transparency within Europe, rather than making it easier for data to flow out of the region.
UK ‘Leeds’ Retail Investors Toward Private Markets
West Yorkshire in Northern England has a long tradition of innovation, having emerged from the Industrial Revolution as a global manufacturing centre. So it may be fitting that the county’s largest city has given its name to a series of proposals that could reshape retail investing in the UK.
The so-called Leeds Reforms include plans to allow individuals to invest in long-term asset funds through stocks and shares individual savings accounts (ISAs).
The UK government is keen to encourage cautious retail investors to move more of their money from cash ISAs—where returns are fixed—to stocks and shares ISAs, to help stimulate capital markets. From April 2026, those holding large cash deposits in low-interest accounts will be targeted with information about investment options.
The government claims that, if current trends continue, retail investors who move £2,000 from these accounts into stocks and shares could be over £9,000 better off after 20 years. Sectors expected to offer strong dividend income include utilities and consumer goods, though investors are advised to reduce UK-specific risk by including some overseas stocks.
The timing appears favourable. The FTSE 100 share index recently passed 9,000 points for the first time, driven by improved earnings across several sectors including banking and defence, as well as new share buy-back plans.
The presence of many multinational firms in the index highlights the global nature of the UK’s capital markets. Analysts estimate that roughly three-quarters of FTSE 100 company earnings are in foreign currencies.
This post is originally published on FINANCEMAGNATES.
