The USDJPY is one of the most traded currency pairs on Forex. It is popular with both traders and investors. The pair’s rate is determined by the economic situation in the US and Japan and by global financial and political developments. Most experts predict the USDJPY will grow soon.
This article analyzes the USDJPY pair and expert opinions regarding its exchange rate in the next few years and beyond. These insights will help you develop a profit-yielding trading strategy.
The article covers the following subjects:
Highlights and Key Points: USD JPY Forecast 2024-2030
- Price today: the pair is trading at ¥143.928 as of today, 25.09.2024.
- Forecasts for 2024 indicate that the pair’s quotes will fluctuate in the range of ¥146–¥150.
- The long-term outlook for 2025 reflects a gradual strengthening of the US dollar. The pair may rise to ¥173–¥179 by 2025 and break above ¥220 by the decade’s end. Periods of the yen’s strengthening may lead to pullbacks.
USD JPY Price Today Coming Days and Week
When forecasting the USDJPY exchange rate in the upcoming days and weeks, it’s crucial to consider economic indicators from the US and Japan, such as interest rates, inflation data, and GDP figures. Central bank policies, particularly from the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, will significantly influence the rate. Additionally, global economic events and geopolitical developments that affect market sentiment and risk appetite should be monitored.
Technical analysis, including trend lines and volume indicators, can provide further insights into potential currency movements. Understanding these factors will aid in predicting the USD/JPY’s short-term direction.
Analysts’ USD JPY Projections for 2024
Let us examine the predictions of financial experts regarding the USDJPY pair for 2024. Analysts have expressed differing views on the future of the currency pair. Some anticipate a modest increase in value, while others foresee a decline in the exchange rate.
LongForecast
Price range in 2024: ¥138.00–¥150.00 (as of 22.09.2024).
According to LongForecast, the USDJPY exchange rate is expected to range between ¥138 and ¥150 in 2024. The US dollar is expected to reach its highest point against the Japanese yen at ¥150 by October, after which it will likely decline and close at ¥140 in December. Despite potential fluctuations within the projected range, the forecast indicates a gradual weakening of the US dollar against the Japanese yen.
| Month | Open, ¥ | Min–Max, ¥ | Close, ¥ | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| September | 146 | 140–149 | 146 | 0% |
| October | 146 | 139–150 | 148 | 1.4% |
| November | 148 | 142–148 | 144 | -1.4% |
| December | 144 | 138–144 | 140 | -4.1% |
WalletInvestor
Price range in 2024: ¥142.137–¥145.555 (as of 22.09.2024).
Analysts at WalletInvestor predict that the USDJPY will trade within the range of ¥142.137 to ¥145.555 in 2024. The pair is expected to open at ¥142.137 in October and close the year at ¥145.555. Based on technical analysis, the forecast indicates a modest strengthening of the greenback against the yen until the end of the year.
| Month | Open, ¥ | Close, ¥ | Minimum, ¥ | Maximum, ¥ | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October | 142.137 | 143.399 | 142.137 | 143.399 | 0.88%▲ |
| November | 143.476 | 144.728 | 143.476 | 144.728 | 0.87%▲ |
| December | 144.755 | 145.555 | 144.755 | 145.555 | 0.55%▲ |
USDJPY Technical Analysis
The following indicators are required to gain a deeper insight into the technical analysis of the USDJPY currency pair:
- Moving averages (SMA and EMA) are used to smooth out price fluctuations and determine trend direction. Periods of 20, 50, and 200 days help ascertain both short-term and long-term trends.
- The RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicates overbought and oversold zones. Values above 70 point to an overbought market, while values below 30 indicate an oversold market.
- The MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence) indicator is used to analyze market momentum and trend direction, as well as to identify potential reversal points.
- Bollinger Bands gauge market volatility. When the bands expand, it indicates an increase in volatility, while a contraction signals decreased price fluctuations.
- Fibonacci levels provide a means of pinpointing potential support and resistance levels based on an analysis of previous price movements. The most commonly used levels are 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%.
- The Stochastic Oscillator is a useful tool for identifying potential pivot points and overbought/oversold zones. Values above 80 indicate an overbought market condition, while values below 20 indicate an oversold market.
- The ADX (Average Directional Index) is a tool used to assess the strength of a trend.
- The Ichimoku indicator is a powerful tool for assessing market trends, determining trend strength, and identifying support and resistance levels. The indicator simplifies complex analysis, making it a highly effective tool for traders and investors seeking a comprehensive approach to technical analysis.
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USDJPY Forecast For Next Three Months
Based on the technical outlook for the USDJPY rate on the daily chart, it appears that there is uncertainty in the market. The RSI indicator is standing at 47, indicating a neutral zone and a temporary consolidation period. Notably, the RSI is gradually recovering from the minimum value of 13.48, which could indicate a potential resumption of the uptrend.
The MACD indicator reveals that both lines are in the negative zone, confirming a long-term bearish trend. However, the MACD line has crossed the signal line from below, and the lines are moving in different directions, pointing to a potential reversal and continuation of the current upward correction.
The SMA is below the EMA, which also indicates that bullish sentiment may prevail in the short term. Both lines are below the closing price, suggesting a probability of continued growth in the near term. However, due to the fact that both lines are in the shadow of the candlestick, it is important to monitor the price movement closely to confirm whether the upward momentum will persist.
Long-Term USDJPY Analysis for 2024
The weekly time frame indicates that bears put considerable pressure on the USDJPY pair. The price is moving at the lower boundary of Bollinger Bands, which suggests heightened volatility and a potential approach to an oversold level. If quotes remain below the middle line of Bollinger Bands, further decline can be expected.
The crossing of the EMA and SMA above the current price confirms the downtrend. Therefore, bears dominate the market. This crossover indicates a bearish trend, and as long as the price remains below the moving averages, the probability of further decline remains high.
The RSI is at the 38 mark, close to the oversold zone, particularly given the decline in values since June 30. Should the indicator fall below 30, the USDJPY price may slide lower, potentially leading to a trend reversal in the future.
The MACD indicator confirms the bearish scenario, with both lines continuing to decline in the negative zone since July 14. The significant divergence between the indicator lines suggests a robust bearish sentiment. The outlook suggests a further decline in quotations.
| Month | USDJPY Projected Values | |
|---|---|---|
| Minimum, ¥ | Maximum, ¥ | |
| October | 138 | 139 |
| November | 137 | 138 |
| December | 139 | 142 |
USDJPY Long-Term Trading Plan
The long-term trading plan for the USDJPY currency pair is based on the current technical analysis and takes into account fundamental factors. In the short term, the correction is likely to continue. At the same time, the US dollar is expected to strengthen during the year.
Trading plan for three months
- Current correction. If the bearish trend persists, the price may decline to key support levels of ¥138–¥140 and even ¥135 if the correction is deep.
- Potential reversal. If the RSI leaves the oversold zone and the MACD line moves above the signal line, the reversal signal will be confirmed. Against this backdrop, the pair may soar to the Target Zone 1 of ¥146–¥148 and the Target Zone 2 of ¥150–¥152, given that upward momentum is strong.
Yearly trading plan
- US dollar’s depreciation. Recently, the Fed has cut its interest rate by 0.50%. Therefore, the US dollar may continue to depreciate. In such an environment, it would be advantageous to open short positions on the USDJPY pair with a take-profit order set in the Target Zone of ¥144–¥146 and ¥140–¥142 if the greenback plunges significantly.
- Long-term consolidation. If the economic situation stabilizes, the exchange rate may consolidate within the Target Zone of ¥145–¥150.
USD JPY Forecast for 2025
Let’s take a look at USDJPY’s expert forecasts for 2025. Most analysts expect modest growth.
LongForecast
Price range in 2025: ¥140–¥158 (as of 22.09.2024).
LongForecast projects that the January-February 2025 period will exhibit minimal volatility, with the pair trading within a narrow range. However, robust growth is anticipated in March, persisting through June.
A modest decline is projected during summer, followed by a resurgence in US dollar strength from September. In the fall, a period of accelerated growth is expected. The exchange rate will likely reach its yearly high in November. A minor correction is possible in December, which would affirm the prevailing bullish trend.
| Month | Open, ¥ | Min–Max, ¥ | Close, ¥ |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 140 | 140–145 | 143 |
| February | 143 | 141–145 | 143 |
| March | 143 | 143–149 | 147 |
| April | 147 | 146–150 | 148 |
| May | 148 | 148–153 | 151 |
| June | 151 | 151–158 | 156 |
| July | 156 | 149–156 | 151 |
| August | 151 | 146–151 | 148 |
| September | 148 | 148–152 | 150 |
| October | 150 | 150–156 | 154 |
| November | 154 | 154–160 | 158 |
| December | 158 | 154–158 | 156 |
WalletInvestor
Price range in 2025: ¥145.569–¥160.122 (as of 22.09.2024).
Analysts at WalletInvestor project that the USDJPY exchange rate will continue to appreciate throughout 2025. In January, the rate will be ¥145.570 and will continue to appreciate throughout the year. By the spring and summer months, the quotes are forecast to exceed the ¥150 mark.
The pair will likely experience elevated volatility in the second half of the year. The greenback may post a brief decline but is expected to resume its upward movement. Starting in the autumn, the USDJPY price will embark on an upward trajectory, with December likely to see the price exceeding ¥160, which would confirm the overall bullish trend during 2025.
| Month | Open, ¥ | Close, ¥ | Minimum, ¥ | Maximum, ¥ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 145.570 | 145.908 | 145.569 | 145.908 |
| February | 145.957 | 147.921 | 145.957 | 147.921 |
| March | 147.940 | 149.367 | 147.940 | 149.367 |
| April | 149.467 | 151.155 | 149.467 | 151.155 |
| May | 151.167 | 152.421 | 151.167 | 152.421 |
| June | 152.473 | 153.689 | 152.473 | 153.689 |
| July | 153.755 | 153.472 | 153.472 | 153.994 |
| August | 153.453 | 154.127 | 153.430 | 154.127 |
| September | 154.198 | 156.669 | 154.198 | 156.669 |
| October | 156.701 | 157.960 | 156.701 | 157.960 |
| November | 158.032 | 159.314 | 158.032 | 159.314 |
| December | 159.353 | 160.122 | 159.353 | 160.122 |
Long-Term USD JPY Forecast for 2026
Let’s take a look at USDJPY’s expert forecasts for 2026. The pair will likely showcase a slight increase with short-term price corrections.
LongForecast
Price range in 2026: ¥156–¥176 (as of 22.09.2024).
LongForecast estimates that the USDJPY exchange rate will experience significant volatility in 2026, but the overall trend will remain bullish. The pair is projected to reach ¥169 by March, followed by a minor correction in the summer, when the exchange rate will likely slide to ¥159. In the autumn, the US dollar will strengthen again, and the USDJPY pair will climb to ¥173 by December.
| Month | Open, ¥ | Min–Max, ¥ | Close, ¥ |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 156 | 156–163 | 161 |
| February | 161 | 161–167 | 165 |
| March | 165 | 165–172 | 169 |
| April | 169 | 163–169 | 165 |
| May | 165 | 165–173 | 170 |
| June | 170 | 166–172 | 169 |
| July | 169 | 162–169 | 164 |
| August | 164 | 157–164 | 159 |
| September | 159 | 159–165 | 163 |
| October | 163 | 163–171 | 168 |
| November | 168 | 168–176 | 173 |
| December | 173 | 167–173 | 170 |
WalletInvestor
Price range in 2026: ¥160.123–¥174.674 (as of 22.09.2024).
WalletInvestor assumes that the USDJPY exchange rate will continue its growth in 2026. In September, the price is projected to reach ¥171.231 and advance to ¥174.674 by the end of December. However, minor fluctuations are anticipated throughout the year.
| Month | Open, ¥ | Close, ¥ | Minimum, ¥ | Maximum, ¥ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 160.123 | 160.470 | 160.123 | 160.470 |
| February | 160.533 | 162.489 | 160.533 | 162.489 |
| March | 162.524 | 163.953 | 162.524 | 163.953 |
| April | 164.020 | 165.705 | 164.020 | 165.705 |
| May | 165.739 | 167.001 | 165.739 | 167.001 |
| June | 167.065 | 168.282 | 167.065 | 168.282 |
| July | 168.317 | 168.059 | 168.059 | 168.595 |
| August | 168.032 | 168.717 | 168.015 | 168.717 |
| September | 168.789 | 171.231 | 168.789 | 171.231 |
| October | 171.250 | 172.516 | 171.250 | 172.516 |
| November | 172.603 | 173.912 | 172.603 | 173.912 |
| December | 173.953 | 174.674 | 173.953 | 174.674 |
Recent Price History of the USD JPY Pair
The USD/JPY exchange rate has seen significant two-way volatility over the past decade, driven by shifting macro trends and central bank policies. After years trading around 80-85, USD/JPY plunged to 76 in early 2012 on aggressive BOJ easing, then surged to 125 by 2015 as easing policies weakened the yen. Heightened uncertainty in 2015-2016 triggered some regaining of haven yen strength. The 2017-2018 period saw stability around 110-115, but escalating US-China tensions again boosted the yen in 2019, pushing USD/JPY below 109.
Aggressive 2020 pandemic easing caused whipsaws between 111 down to 103, before diverging Fed and BOJ policies helped a rebound back above 110. In 2023, further policy divergence could lend some dollar support, but global recession worries might spur bouts of yen safety buying. After recent 145-150 range trading, uncertainty persists on risks of fluctuations amid shifting growth and risk sentiment this year. But occasional dollar strength is possible on widening rate differentials.
Long-Term USD JPY Forecast for 2027–2028
Let’s take a look at USDJPY’s expert forecasts for 2027–2028. Most analysts expect the pair to increase, exceeding the ¥200 mark.
LongForecast
Price range: ¥168–¥205 (as of 22.09.2024).
According to LongForecast, the USDJPY quotes will reach ¥170 in January 2027 and soar to ¥189 by January 2028. The pair will trade in an uptrend with monthly fluctuations.
WalletInvestor
Price range: ¥174.698–¥203.092 (as of 22.09.2024).
WalletInvestor experts suggest that the USD/JPY exchange rate will continue to rise in the long term. In early 2027, the price will trade near ¥174. By January 2028, the rate will be ¥189. A persistent uptrend is expected.
| Year | Analytical agency | Minimum, ¥ | Maximum, ¥ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | LongForecast | 168 | 194 |
| 2028 | LongForecast | 187 | 205 |
| 2027 | Walletinvestor.com | 175.048 | 187.186 |
| 2028 | Walletinvestor.com | 189.638 | 203.092 |
Which Factors Impact USD JPY Forecast?
Here’s what determines the future price movements:
- Monetary Policy Divergence: The differences in policy between the US Federal Reserve (e.g., interest rate hikes) and the Bank of Japan (e.g., quantitative easing) significantly affect USD/JPY exchange rates.
- Global Growth Differentials: The relative economic performance of the US and Japan influences the pair; stronger US growth can boost the USD, while weaker data can decrease its value against the JPY.
- Commodity Prices: As Japan imports significant amounts of oil, lower crude oil prices tend to strengthen the yen, and vice versa.
- Equity Market Trends: Japanese and global stock market fluctuations affect investor risk appetite, influencing USD/JPY volatility.
- Government Rhetoric/Intervention: Statements or actions by government officials regarding currency markets can cause abrupt changes in USD/JPY rates.
Is USD/JPY Still a Good Investment?
The USDJPY pair represents a promising investment opportunity, particularly if the forecasts regarding the strengthening of the US dollar against the yen prove accurate. The stability of the US economy and the actions of the US Fed may boost the USDJPY pair’s quotes. However, volatility in currency markets creates additional risks for short-term investors. Price fluctuations can be triggered by various external factors, including global economic trends and political instability. If the US dollar displays strength, the USDJPY pair could be a solid long-term investment.
FAQs on USDJPY Forecast
The current price that the Japanese yen is trading at is around ¥143.928 per US dollar as of today 25.09.2024.
Based on the forecast and technical analysis, the USDJPY pair may soon drop to the key support area of ¥138–¥144. After that, a correction is expected, then the rate will begin to stabilize with the prospect of an uptrend recovery.
In 2024, the US dollar will strengthen against the Japanese yen. The pair will likely fluctuate within the range of ¥138–¥145.
Long-term forecasts for the USDJPY exchange rate indicate a potential strengthening of the US dollar against the Japanese yen in the 2024–2025 period. Analysts project that the exchange rate may hit ¥160 per US dollar by 2025, reflecting an overall upward trend.
The USDJPY rate is likely to rise. According to WalletInvestor forecasts, quotes may reach ¥174 by the end of 2026. This bullish trend is expected to continue in 2027–2028.
The main factors affecting the USDJPY currency pair are divergence in the monetary policy of the US and Japan, economic indicators such as GDP growth, inflation rate, and employment, as well as global risks and geopolitical developments. Investment flows between countries also play an important role as the demand for the US dollar and yen depends on them.
Strong US economic indicators, such as GDP growth and inflation, lead to a stronger US dollar. At the same time, Japan’s weak economy and low interest rates may weaken the yen. Geopolitical risks and the global economic outlook also affect the exchange rate.
The USDJPY exchange rate may be affected by interest rate decisions of the Fed and the Bank of Japan, economic reports on GDP, inflation and employment, political uncertainty (e.g. the US presidential election), as well as global events such as geopolitical conflicts and trade wars. These factors may cause fluctuations in the currency pair.
Price chart of USDJPY in real time mode
The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteFinance. The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2004/39/EC.
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