Economic Calendar for the Week 20.01.2025 – 26.01.2025

Early last week, the DXY Dollar Index surpassed the 110.00 threshold and is now continuing its upward momentum toward the November 2022 highs and the 111.00 level. The dollar is rising amid positive macro statistics from the US, and its buyers open more trades in anticipation of the new White House administration following the inauguration of the newly elected US President Donald Trump on January 20.

The US dollar is gaining traction as a safe haven asset amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. Investors are increasingly worried about Trump’s rhetoric regarding the purchase of Greenland and the potential for the Panama Canal to return to US control. Furthermore, the possibility of addressing these concerns, including through military means, remains on the table.

In the upcoming week, 20.01.2025 – 26.01.2025, market participants will focus on the release of important macro statistics on the US, UK, Canada, New Zealand, Germany, the eurozone, as well as the Bank of Japan meeting results (on Friday).

Note: During the coming week, new events may be added to the calendar, and/or some scheduled events may be canceled. GMT time

The article covers the following subjects:

Major Takeaways

• Monday: newly elected US President Donald Trump’s inauguration.
• Tuesday: UK labor market data.
• Wednesday: no important macro statistics is scheduled.
• Thursday: no important macro statistics is scheduled.
• Friday: German, eurozone, UK, and US preliminary PMIs.
• The key event of the week: German, eurozone, UK, and US preliminary PMIs

Monday, January 20

Banks and stock exchanges in the US will be closed due to Martin Luther King Jr. Day celebrations. Trading volumes will be low. Besides, the inauguration of the newly elected US President Donald Trump will take place on this day. While no significant macroeconomic reports are scheduled for release, investors keeping an eye on the Australian and New Zealand dollars and other key currencies from the Asia-Pacific region should pay close attention to the results from the People’s Bank of China’s meeting.

01:15 – CNY: People’s Bank of China Interest Rate Decision

Since May 2012, the People’s Bank of China has been lowering its interest rate to support Chinese manufacturers. Last time, the bank reduced the rate in October 2024 after a long pause since August 2023, bringing the rate down by 0.1% to its current level of 3.10%.

In 2024, the world’s major central banks have also started a policy easing cycle amid slowing inflation. What will the Chinese central bank do this time after pausing since September 2023 and easing policy in July 2024?

The People’s Bank of China will likely keep the interest rate unchanged at 3.10% at this meeting, although other decisions are also possible.

Should the People’s Bank of China make statements that deviate from expectations, volatility may increase across the entire financial market, particularly in the Asian one. Investors will closely watch the bank’s assessment of the Chinese economy’s prospects and its policy stance in the short term.

Tuesday, January 21

07:00 – GBP: Average Weekly Earnings Over the Last Three Months. Unemployment Rate

The UK Office for National Statistics monthly publishes a report on average weekly earnings covering the period for the last three months, including and excluding bonuses.

This report is a key short-term indicator of employee average earnings changes in the UK. An increase in wages is positive for the British pound, whereas a low indicator value is unfavorable. Forecast: The January report suggests that average earnings, including bonuses, rose again in the last three months, including September, October, and November, after gaining +5.2%, +4.3%, +3.8%, +4.0%, 4.5%, +5.7%, +5.9%, +5.7%, +5.6%, +5.6%, +5.8%, +6.5%, +7.2%, +7.9%, +8.1%, +8.5%, +8.2%, +6.9%, +6.5%, +5.8%, +5.9%, +6.0%, +6.5%, +6.%, +6.1%, +5.5%, +5.2%, +6.4%, +6.8%, +7.0%, +5.6%, +5.7%, +4.8%, +4.3%, +4.2% in previous periods. The earnings value excluding bonuses also increased with percentages at +5.2%, +4.8%, +4.9%, +5.1%, +5.4%, +6.0%, +6.0%, +6.0%, +6.1%, +6.2%, +6.6%, +7.3%, +7.7%, +7.8%, +7.8%, +7.8%, +7.8%, +7.3%, +7.2%, +6.7%, +6.6%, +6.6%, +6.7%, +6.5%, +6.1%, +5.8%, +5.5%, +5.2%, +4.7%, +4.4%, +4.2%, +4.2%, +4.1%, +3.8%, +3.7%, +3.8% in previous periods. These figures show continued growth in employee earnings levels, which is positive for the British pound. If the data outperforms the forecast and/or previous values, the pound will likely strengthen in the currency exchange market. Conversely, if the data falls short of the forecast/previous values, the pound will be negatively affected.

The UK unemployment data will be released at the same time. Unemployment is expected to stand at 4.3% for the three months of September, October, and November (against 4.3%, 4.3%, 4.0%, 4.1%, 4.2%, 4.4%, 4.4%, 4.3%, 4.2%, 4.0%, 3.8%, 3.9%, 4.0%, 4.1%, 4.2%, 4.3%, 4.2%, 4.0%, 3.9% in previous periods).

Since 2012, the UK unemployment rate has fallen steadily from 8.0% in September 2012. The unemployment decline is a positive factor for the pound, while its growth negatively impacts the currency.

If the UK labor market data appears to be worse than the forecast and/or the previous value, the pound will be under pressure.

Regardless, when the UK labor market data is released, the pound and the London Stock Exchange are expected to experience increased volatility.

13:30 – CAD: Canadian Consumer Price Indexes

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) reflects the retail price trends of a selected basket of goods and services. Meanwhile, the Core CPI excludes fruits, vegetables, gasoline, fuel oil, natural gas, mortgage interest, intercity transportation, and tobacco products. The inflation target for the Bank of Canada ranges between 1% and 3%. A higher CPI reading is a sign of a rate hike and is positive for the Canadian dollar.

Previous values:

• CPI: 0% (+1.9% YoY), +0.4% (+2.0% YoY), -0.4% (+1.6% YoY),-0.2% (+2.0% YoY), +0.4% (+2.5% YoY), -0.1% (+2.7% YoY), +0.6% (+2.9% YoY), +0.5% (+2.7% YoY), +0.6% (+2.9% YoY), +0.6% (+2.9% YoY), +0.3% (+2.8% YoY), 0% (+2.9% YoY), -0.3% (+3.4% YoY), +0.1% (+3.1% YoY), +0.1% (+3.1% YoY), -0.1% (+3.8% YoY), +0.4% (+4.0% YoY), +0.6% (+3.3% YoY), +0.1% (+2.8% YoY);
• Core CPI released by the Bank of Canada: -0.1% (+1.6% YoY), +0.4% (+1.7% YoY), 0% (+1.6% YoY), -0.1% (+1.5% YoY), +0.3% (+1.7% YoY), -0.1% (+1.9% YoY), +0.6% (+1.8% YoY), +0.2% (+1.6% YoY), +0.5% (+2.0% YoY), +0.1% (+2.1% YoY), +0.1% (+2, 4% YoY), -0.5% (+2.6% YoY), +0.1% (+2.8% YoY), +0.3% (+2.7% YoY), -0.1% (+2.8% YoY), +0.1% (+3.3% YoY), +0.5% (+3.2% YoY), -0.1% (+3.2% YoY).

The data suggests that inflation continues to decelerate, which prompts the Canadian central bank to consider implementing a dovish monetary policy. If the expected data is worse than the previous values, it will negatively affect the Canadian dollar, but if the data exceeds expectations, it will bolster the currency.

21:45 – NZD: Consumer Price Index for Q4 2024

The Consumer Price Index is a key indicator for assessing inflation, which reflects the retail price movements for a group of goods and services comprising the consumer basket. A positive reading strengthens the New Zealand dollar, while a negative one weakens it.

Previous values: +0.6% (+2.2% YoY), +0.4% (+3.3% YoY) in Q2 2024, +0.6% (+4.0% YoY) in Q1 2024, +0.5% (+4.7% YoY) in Q4 2023, +1.8% (+5.6% YoY) in Q3 2023, +1.1% (+6.0% YoY) in Q2 2023. Annualized values: +6.7% in Q1 2023, +7.2% in Q4 and Q3 2022, +7.3% in Q2, +6.9% in Q1 2022, +5.9% in Q4 2021, +4.9% in Q3 2021, +3.3% in Q2 2021, +1.5% in Q1 2021.

A relative decline in the indicator readings and a value below the forecast may negatively affect the New Zealand dollar.

Wednesday, January 22

There are no important macro statistics scheduled to be released.

Thursday, January 23

There are no important macro statistics scheduled to be released. However, pay attention to the publication (at 13:30 GMT) of weekly data from the US labor market on jobless claims and the publication (at 23:30) of Japan’s national consumer price index.

Friday, January 24

Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision. Bank of Japan Press Conference and Commentary on Monetary Policy

The Bank of Japan will decide on the interest rate. At the moment, the benchmark rate in Japan is 0.25%. The rate will likely remain at the same level. If the rate is cut and returns to negative values, the yen may decline sharply in the currency market, and the Japanese stock market will likely increase. Anyway, a spike in the yen and Asian financial market volatility is expected during this period.

Since February 2016, the Bank of Japan has kept the deposit rate at -0.1% and the 10-year bond yield target around 0%.

During the 19 March meeting, the BoJ made the decision to increase the interest rate by 10 basis points, shifting it from -0.1% to 0% for the first time since 2007, thus concluding the period of negative interest rates that commenced in 2016. Concurrently, the target for long-term JGBs (YCC) was scrapped, although the BoJ intends to maintain the same level of JGB purchases per month without a specific target. On the other hand, the bank will cease the purchase of ETFs and REITs, gradually decrease, and eventually terminate the acquisition of commercial paper and corporate bonds within 12 months.

According to analysts, if the BoJ hints at further rate hikes, the yen will receive significant support.

During the press conference, BoJ governor Kazuo Ueda will comment on the monetary policy. The BoJ continues to adhere to an extra-soft monetary policy. According to former Japanese central bank governor Haruhiko Kuroda, Japan should continue its current soft monetary policy. Markets usually respond prominently to speeches by the BoJ governor. The governor will likely mention the monetary policy again during his speech, leading to increased volatility not only in the yen but also in Asian and global financial markets.

06:00 – JPY: Bank of Japan Press Conference

During the press conference, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, who succeeded Haruhiko Kuroda in April 2023, will comment on the bank’s monetary policy. Despite the bank’s earlier measures to stimulate the Japanese economy, inflation remains low, and production and consumption are falling, which negatively affects export-oriented Japanese manufacturers. Markets usually react noticeably to speeches of the BoJ governor. If he touches on monetary policy during his speech, volatility will rise not only in the yen but also across Asian and global financial markets.

08:30 – EUR: Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Index of the German Economy by S&P Global. Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index of the German Economy by S&P Global (Preliminary Release)

The manufacturing and services PMIs are important indicators of the business environment and the health of the German economy. These sectors play a significant role in Germany’s GDP. A reading above 50 indicates a positive outlook and bolsters the euro, while a reading below 50 is negative for the euro. Conversely, data worse than the forecasted and/or the previous value will prove to be negative for the euro.

Previous values:

• Manufacturing PMI: 42.5 in December 2024, 43.0, 43.0, 40.6, 42.4, 43.2, 43.5, 45.4, 42.5, 41.9, 42.5, 45.5, 43.3, 40.8, 39.6, 38.8, 40.6, 43.2, 44.5, 44.7, 46.3, 47.3, 47.1, 46.2, 45.1, 47.8, 49.1, 49.3, 52.0, 54.8, 54.6;
• Services PMI: 51.2 in December 2024, 49.3, 51.6, 50.6, 51.2, 52.5, 53.1, 54.2, 53.2, 50.1, 48.3, 47.7, 45.7, 48.2, 50.3, 52.3, 54.1, 57.2, 56.0, 53.7, 50.9, 50.7, 49.2, 46.1, 46.5, 45.0, 47.7, 49.7, 52.4, 55.0, 57.6, 56.1, 55.8;
• Composite PMI: 48.0 in December 2024, 47.2, 48.6, 47.5, 48.4, 49.1, 50.4, 52.4, 50.6, 47.7, 46.3, 47.0, 47.4, 45.9, 46.4, 48.5, 50.6, 53.9, 54.2, 52.6, 50.7, 49.9, 49.0, 46.3, 45.1, 45.7, 46.9, 48.1, 51.3, 53.7, 54.3, 55.1, 55.6.

09:00 – EUR: Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Index. Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index of Eurozone Manufacturing Activity by S&P Global (Preliminary Release)

The eurozone manufacturing and services PMIs are significant indicators of the European economy state. Readings above 50 are positive and strengthen the euro, while readings below 50 are negative for the currency. If the figures are worse than the forecasted and/or the previous value, the euro will be affected negatively.

Previous values:

• Manufacturing PMI: 49.6 in December 2024, 45.2, 46.0, 45.0, 45.8, 45.8, 45.8, 47.3, 45.7, 46.1, 46.5, 46.6, 44.4, 43.1, 47.2, 42.7, 43.4, 44.8, 45.8, 47.3, 48.5, 48.8 in January 2023;
• Services PMI: 51.2 in December 2024, 49.5, 51.6, 51.4, 52.9, 51.9, 52.8, 53.2, 53.3, 51.5, 50.2, 48.4, 48.8, 47.8, 48.7, 50.9, 52.0, 55.1, 56.2, 55.0, 52.7, 50.8 in January 2023;
• Composite PMI: 48.0 in December 2024, 48.3, 50.0, 49.6, 51.0, 50.2, 50.9, 52.2, 51.7, 50.3, 49.2, 47.9, 47.6, 46.5, 47.2, 48.6, 52.8, 54.1, 53.7, 52.0, 50.3, 49.3 in January 2023.

09:30 – GBP: Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Index. Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index of the UK Manufacturing Sector by S&P Global (Preliminary Release)

The manufacturing and services PMIs serve as a vital indicator of the UK economy’s health. The services sector employs the majority of the UK’s working-age population and contributes approximately 75% of GDP. Financial services continue to be the most important part of the services sector. If the data is worse than forecast and the previous value, the British pound will likely experience a short-term but sharp decline. If the data exceeds the forecast and the previous value, it will have a positive impact on the currency. At the same time, a PMI reading above 50 is favorable and strengthens the British pound, while a reading below 50 is negative for the currency.

Previous values:

• Manufacturing PMI: 48.0, 49.9, 51,5, 52.5, 52.1, 50.9, 51.2, 49.1, 50.3, 47.5, 47.0, 46.2, 44.8, 44.3, 45.3, 46.5, 47.1, 47.8, 47.9, 49.3, 47.0, 45.3, 46.5, 46.2, 48.4;
• Services PMI: 51.1 in December 2024, 50.8, 52.0, 51.4, 53.7, 52.5, 52.1, 52.9, 55.0, 53.1, 53.8, 54.3, 53.4, 49.5, 49.3, 51.5, 53.7, 55.2, 55.9, 52.9, 53.5, 48.7, 49.9, 48.8, 48.8, 50.0, 50.9, 52.6;
• Composite PMI: 50.4 in December 2024, 50.5, 51.8, 49.6, 53.8, 52.8, 52.3, 53.0, 54.1, 52.8, 53.0, 52.9, 52.1, 48.7, 48.5, 50.8, 52.8, 54.0, 54.9, 52.2, 53.1, 48.5 in January 2023.

14:45 – USD: Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Index of the US Economy by S&P Global. Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (Preliminary Releases)

The PMIs of the most important US economic sectors, released by S&P Global, are an important gauge of the US economic conditions. A PMI reading above 50 signals bullishness, bolstering the US dollar, whereas a reading below 50 bodes negatively for the greenback.

Previous values:

• Manufacturing PMI: 49.4 in December 2024, 49.7, 48.5, 47.6, 47.9, 49.6, 51.6, 51.3, 50.0, 51.9, 52.2, 50.7, 47.9, 50.0, 49.8, 49.0, 46.3, 48.4, 50.2, 47.3, 46.9, 46.2, 47.7, 50.4, 52.0, 51.5;
• Services PMI: 56.8 in December 2024, 56.1, 55.0, 55.2, 55.7, 55.0, 55.3, 54.8, 51.3, 51.7, 52.3, 52.5, 51.4, 50.6, 50.1, 52.3, 54.4, 54.9, 53.6, 50.6, 46.8, 44.7, 46.2, 47.8, 49.3, 43.7, 47.3, 52.7, 53.4, 55.6;
• Composite PMI: 55.4 in December 2024, 54.9, 54.1, 54.0, 54.6, 54.3, 54.8, 54.5, 51.3, 52.1, 52.5, 52.0, 50.9, 50.7, 50.2, 52.0, 53.2, 54.3, 53.4, 52.3, 50.1, 46.8 in January 2023.

Price chart of USDJPY in real time mode

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