Oil prices settle lower as China stimulus underwhelms, US hurricane risk abates

Investing.com– Oil prices fell Monday as more fiscal stimulus measures from top importer China underwhelmed, while a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico appeared to have a limited impact on U.S. production.

At 07:45 ET (12:45 GMT), Brent oil futures fell 1.8% to $72.56 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropped 2% to $69.00 a barrel. 

China stimulus underwhelms 

Prices extended losses from Friday after Beijing approved about 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) in measures aimed at lowering government debt levels. But a lack of targeted measures for private consumption largely left investors wanting more, especially as data over the weekend showed persistent Chinese deflation.

China’s new stimulus measures disappointed investors hoping for more, especially as the world’s biggest oil importer did not announce measures specifically aimed at improving private spending. 

Analysts at ANZ said the gaps in stimulus were to accommodate for potential headwinds from a change in U.S. administration, after Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential elections.

Trump has vowed to impose steep import tariffs against China, heralding more economic headwinds for the country. 

Data released over the weekend also showed Chinese consumer inflation contracted in October, while producer inflation shrank for a 25th consecutive month.

“Markets were left underwhelmed by China’s debt package, which will help alleviate local government debt and allow them to implement more stimulus measures. In addition, a Trump presidency is seen as relatively more bearish for energy markets. However, the key risk to this view is if President Trump chooses to strictly enforce sanctions against Iran. This would erase the surplus expected over 2025,” said analysts at ING, in a note.

US supply fears abate as Hurricane Rafael weakens 

Hurricane Rafael weakened into a tropical storm over the Gulf of Mexico, and is expected to weaken further in the coming days.

The storm is now projected to pose a limited threat to oil production in the region, heralding fewer supply disruptions.

Chevron (NYSE:CVX) stated on Sunday that has started redeploying personnel and restoring production at its Gulf Of Mexico platforms that were closed for Hurricane Rafael.

Chevron operates six platforms in the Gulf of Mexico – Anchor, Blind Faith, Jack/St. Malo, Tahiti, Petronius, and Big Foot.

Speculators increased crude longs 

The latest positioning data shows that speculators increased their net long positions in ICE Brent in the lead-up to the US election.

Speculators bought 32,238 lots over the last reporting week to leave them with a net long of 126,145 lots as of last Tuesday. Similarly, speculators increased their net long in NYMEX WTI by 48,143 lots to 143,985 lots.

“Softer fundamentals through next year suggest little reason for speculators to jump into the market. However, there are clear risks, including OPEC+ deciding to further delay the unwinding of their supply cuts next year,” ING added.

(Ambar Warrick contributed to this article.)