OPEC in conundrum as supply surplus risk, slowing demand leaves hard choices ahead

Investing.com — OPEC and its allies, or OPEC+, are facing unfavourable backdrop for the plans to boost production as a potential crude surplus in 2025 and cooling demand will likely continue to blunt any boost to oil pricesfrom potential supply disruptions, strategists from BofA said in a Monday note.

“OPEC+ has sought opportunities to raise output ever since it started ceding market share in late 2022. The group unveiled an aspirational plan in June to do just that, but a demand growth slowdown, from 1.9mn b/d in 2023 to just 900k b/d in 1Q24 and <700k b/d in 2Q/3Q upended their plans,” BofA said.

Rising non-Opec production has added wave of new barrels on the market — a trend that the strategist expect to persist as higher oil prices encourage more drilling.

“Unsurprisingly, higher oil prices should translate into strong nonOPEC supply growth of 1.4mn b/d YoY in 2025 and another 900k b/d in 2026 year, BofA said.

In 2025, Brazil, Guyana, Canada, and Norway should add 300k b/d, 120k b/d, 90k b/d, and 90k b/d of supply YoY. Meanwhile, we expect US supply to rise more than 600k b/d next year as L-48 supply growth slows and Gulf of Mexico output rises again

Non-OPEC oil production is expected to increase by 1.4 million barrels per day (b/d) year-over-year in 2025, with another 900,000 b/d growth in 2026, according to the strategists. 

The global oil balance is expected to shift to a surplus of 730,000 b/d in 2025, leaving “OPEC+ with limited options to manage market balances effectively,” they said.

“So, the group faces a difficult challenge, which likely requires continued resolve and possibly additional curtailments if balances deteriorate further,” they added.

The geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel, meanwhile, have proved a fleeting boost for oil prices as there have been no supply disruptions to date.

This backdrop, combined with weak refining margins pointing to soft oil demand, has kept Brent crude oil prices hovering around $74 per barrel, a level BofA considers fair given the current uncertainties.